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https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1631262711152537605

https://preview.redd.it/ef42czwnwdla1.png?width=1202&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=7d3f0e2561a47caa71581de9f4b4daf30ec0651a

This seemed like profound thought to me when I had it around age 15. Hanson is an adult tenured professor who is supposed to have adult viewpoints.

To state the obvious:

- almost every country in Europe has some form of conscription, most notably in this case Russia. If Ukraine loses the war, their population will be subjected to conscription in the Russian army.

- conscription is involuntary and might be bad, but it is not slavery. In particular it doesn’t involve a separate caste of people who are permanent slaves without rights.

- the US also practices military conscription, so the tweet is just stupid.

I wonder if he has any suggestions for what the Ukrainians should do, given that they aren’t living in a libertarian world at the moment. The Hanson/libertarian formula – the world does not conform to my theories of how it should work, but rather than examine my theories I will complain about how the world fails to follow them.

In the replies, Geoffrey Miller states that mandatory schooling is slavery.

Prison labour, however, is merely “somewhat similar to slavery, in some regards.”

Everything is slavery, except actual slavery, which is just fine.
That applies to conscription too. If conscription occurs in a democratic country like Ukraine, with huge, genuine popular support and is widely applied to a huge fraction of the population across different demographics, then according to libertarians it's slavery. Particularly terrible that it could apply to a libertarian bigbrain. The way Russia does it - primarily drafting minorities into this war, now that's not slavery. If Russia was to win this war and start another one, using drafted Ukrainians alongside all the other minorities conquered by the original Russian empire way back when, then libertarians would not find that to be slavery.
um sweatie, me as 10 year old being forced to do house chores from my parents is child slavery

In particular it doesn’t involve a separate caste of people who are permanent slaves without rights.

Well, chattel slavery isn’t the only kind. And I definitely think “conscription is a form of slavery” is an arguable proposition. But yes, overall this is still a dipshit tweet.

I’m not really in the loop on the who’s who of LW and EA – is this guy an EA or what?

he's the guy whose blog Overcoming Bias was where Yud originally posted the Sequences. Supplied the rationalists' academic heft for a while. Cryonicist. Very much a part of the subculture. Ghastly opinions.
Thanks. These tweets, and responses, are, in fact, some of the worst I've seen.
More of a general Milton Friedmanesque Libertarian dipshit than a hard core cultist though, IIRC.
totally in the rationalist cult, but not in fact into Austrian Economics, it's true
Was he the one who forced Yud into admitting that his way of dealing with entropy is just "the machines will invent literal magic"? After which Yud formed his own group, for unrelated reasons of course.
[Is Robin Hanson America's Creepiest Economist?](https://archive.ph/ZK5T5#selection-135.0-135.46) TL;DR Yes.
The rare counterexample to Betteridge's Law of Headlines!
  • the US also practices military conscription, so the tweet is just stupid.

The US essentially makes males register for Selective Service, but conscription is basically dead, though certainly a theoretical possibility. Saying that the US practices it seems inaccurate. The circumstances where the US would bring back conscription are essentially such that, in the absence of the current system of Selective Service, they’d invent it de novo. It’s certainly the case that if the US were experiencing something of the same scale as the Russian invasion, there would be conscription.

But yeah in short I agree Hanson is a tedious child.

If Ukraine loses the war, their population will be subjected to conscription in the Russian army.

The survivors of the culling will, that is.

> The US essentially makes males register for Selective Service Essentially? It's required by law with a penalty of $250,000 and/or 5 years imprisonment. Selective Service exists explicitly for conscription if directed by Congress and the President in a national crisis.
If the government already knows who's supposed to register, why doesn't it just register them itself instead of making everyone do paperwork? Is there some TurboTax of conscription that's successfully lobbied on behalf of paperwork?
Idk, probably because it's a very old system that nobody is in a rush to modernize. We don't expect to be invaded anytime soon. And the paperwork is just signing a thing when you're 18. Most people forget about it by the end of the week.
AFAIK, the federal government does not know who should be registered, not in an official sense. That the feds do, for instance, know everyone who has been registered for Social Security doesn’t preclude the fact that one has to actually fill out separate federal paperwork to get a child an SSN, and that doing so is actually optional. If one were to propose legislation that required that all children that were born be tracked by the federal government the libertarian tendencies of the overall apparatus of the U.S. would make it such a hard lift that I can’t really see it happening. In addition, due to these tendencies, the onus has always been on the individual to procure identification, rather than for the government to provide identification. The system is not set up to serve everyone, working far better for the affluent than the poor. Thus you can see ID requirements being opposed at various times from both the right and the left.
Any kid who wanted to work for a paycheck starting at 16 would have an SSN and be in the tax system.
I can personally tell you they have a way to do this. However they import data in to their system for people approaching 18, I was double entered with one SSN and another incorrect SSN. I registered on my 18th birthday but kept getting calls saying I hadn’t registered. It took months to sort out.
The “not in an official sense” isn’t in my comment by accident. Just because they have data and make use of it to harass you into registering doesn’t mean they officially have the means of identifying and automatically registering everyone who is mandated to be available for “selective service”. Of course, Congress could pass a law that says every person that is registered for social security as a male shall be deemed eligible for the selective service draft as of their 18th birthday. But as I already said, this runs contrary to the general tendency within the US to put the onus on individuals to proactively take measures to comply, rather than for the government to take those actions on behalf of the citizenry. I’m also of the belief that the selective service registration documents address potential challenges to the draft on constitutional grounds, being that you are over the age of majority when signing the document. I’m definitely not saying that it’s somehow impossible. I’m merely saying that it runs contrary to weight of the established US system.
There are consequences for failure, but nobody has been prosecuted for decades.
Before the law was changed at the end of 2020, the real and immediate consequence is that you were ineligible for some Student Aid if you didn't register. That was a threat that had teeth, unlike any threat of prosecution which 18 year olds are rightfully unafraid of.
not only that but for any govt position or many private sector ones you will be asked if you registered whihc is hilarious 20 years later. youd think theyds have caught up with me at this point lol
The US and Canada also have forms of conscientious objector status. In the US the application process is work but is not impossible. I’m less sure about Canada, but know they have it because I visited the site where they attempted to prototype pykrete boats during WWII and the plaque mentioned Canada men who had gotten conscientious objector status were sometimes assigned to work on projects like that instead.
The armed forces in the US also have no interest in bringing back the conscription. If they did, the way CO status would work is you get drafted, you become a CO, you get assigned work on something suitable. But, again, registering for Selective Service is extremely far from having actual conscription.

almost every country in Europe has some form of conscription, most notably in this case Russia

Russia has been sending convicts to fight in the invasion of Ukraine, not just within the military but also in service of a private mercenary company, so, um, if normal conscription is evil then it’s certainly the lesser

Robin Hanson is back for the hard hitting slave takes. Better than his waffle about Sally Hemings? We’ll see.

I might disagree that there isn’t a separate caste. Exempt from conscription in Ukraine are:

  • applicants for professional higher and higher education, trainee assistants, graduate students and doctoral students studying abroad in full-time or dual forms of education (students, listeners).

  • men employed in nationally-important manufacturing, government support activities including state cultural institutions, education and science institutions, physical education and sports facilities, social security agencies, television production and broadcast businesses, international representation offices and NGOs working in humanitarian aid. (Getting fired from or quitting one of these jobs will typically lead to conscription)

Most of these groups skew towards higher social class, and those which don’t have clear military applications. This isn’t unique to Ukraine, these rules are pretty similar to historical American conscription rules.

Not playing devils advocate for the tweet (“therefore the United States supports slavery” is a stupid observation, we have mass prison labor) but conscription is almost always designed to target or exclude particular social classes.

and nary a hint of what prediction markets would make of all of this. robbie boy, you’re slipping

I would pay good money to see a proper expert in war and geopolitics reducing this iconic example of a navel gazinf fuckwad into a seething mess by dissecting just how FRACTALLY wrong he is. no matter how far you zoom in, this is stupid all the way down.

so close yet so far