I propose we first test infections through the rectum. It is a
receptive mucous membrane which is, at the same time, well equipped for
dealing with pathogens. Diarrhea itself is a manageable condition, with
proper rehydration protocol.
There is no real formulated plan at the moment, anywhere. The initial
strategy of 60-70% will get infected eventually and “We’ll just flatten
the curve, but otherwise let it run its course” turned out to not be
feasible, because at a manageable rate, it would take a decade to reach
sufficient herd immunity that way. The system gets overloaded with even
tiny fractions of the population. UK had had at least some bold vision,
but it was abandoned when the public pressure over deaths became too
much.
In the other thread there's a guy who is thinking of actually putting it to practice on himself.
edit: in this thread now too. " Maybe get in touch with the biohacker community? This seem like something they might have come up with. They are internationally connected to the right kind of crazy people for this."
edit: look at the fucking thread they're now sending green text emails to public health officials lol.
https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/fl01hq/corona_variolation_ii_a_project/fkw6wew/
Academics of diverse backgrounds my ass.
>To whom it may concern
>I am part of a group of academics of various backgrounds that has been discussing alternative strategies to deal with the unfolding covid-19 pandemic.
Oh my fucking God
Also what's with this whole "decades" thing? Where did that come from?
There's actual estimates by people who aren't idiots, 18 months would be pretty good: https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20200317.457910/full/
I guess it is ~decades if every person in the country had to be hospitalized for a month.
edit: is it some Hanson nonsense I missed, or did Scott post some idiotic medical speculations lately?
> did scott post
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/19/coronalinks-3-19-20/
Note the fellating of billionaires again. Scott ignores that it is only in the us the gov seems to be failing. (And billionaires also always say they will help but never do, see flint, the notre, the musk submarine thing, russian rich people buying all the countries
ventilators (which prob are useless outside of a hospital) etc).
E: also forgot, Scott reads and believes breitbart.
I think it's probably quite simple. They don't like the lockdown, nobody likes it. But for them 2*2 will, through a very long winded string of derivations, equal 5 or 6 (or both) if they don't like 4 being the answer.
With "decades" i think the only way it adds up is if we assume that each person in the country has to stay in the hospital for a month (would take ~300 months or 25 years). Which is patently ridiculous.
I think the decades thing is from the curves thing, where you go in periodic minor lockdowns i have no idea gow to judge how long that takes as im not an immunolist.
Im just sneering at the billionaire dick sucking. (At least get paid if you suck billionaire dick).
> I think the decades thing is from the curves thing, where you go in periodic minor lockdowns i have no idea gow to judge how long that takes
Well I'm also going by that article I linked with an estimate, it's not like it is ever going to be a simple formula considering that some people are contacting far more people than average (so they get sick soonest and the virus no longer spreads through them).
By the way, the R0 is "only" ~3 or so, this could probably be stopped entirely by everyone obsessively sanitizing their hands, not going out with cough (or if a family member has cough), antimicrobial handles everywhere, and testing with self quarantine of those infected. Would require people to take this seriously enough, which isn't going to happen until too late. We're pretending everything is "too clean" just as we're getting a dozen colds a year.
Events got cancelled, that's great, work from home, that's great, but people don't seem to be otherwise willing to cut their opportunities for infecting others in 3.
With the decades thing I was just trying to figure out how they arrived at decades, first thing to try is to see how long it would take to have the whole population stay in the hospital for a month. Yep, that's probably what the idiots had in mind. Given how big of idiots they are, that got to be it.
I posted a link with proper estimates: https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hblog20200317.457910/full/
That gives 18 months as the ideal figure. COVID-19 only infects a fraction of people, only a fraction of those people need to be in the hospital, only a fraction of those people need to be in an ICU, if you do the math, it does not work out to decades.
Also, any bit helps. Think of it that way, if we all get sick next month simultaneously, they'll only save as many as the hospital capacity. If we spread it over 2 months, they'll save twice the hospital capacity, and so on. Simply slowing it down 2x doubles the number of people hospitals can save.
edit: actually I have a question, do you happen to know where does this decades crap come from?
Why hasn’t someone qualified proposed it already? I think the entire
concept is antithetical to modern institutional medical thinking. It
smacks of eugenics and human experiments. It arguably violates “First,
do no harm.” It’s primitive and barbaric and definitely not something
modern medicine would stoop to.
I know, right? Most diseases?
HIV, no, Rabies, no, Ebola/Marburg, no, every viral -itis of an internal organ is off the list, every bite transmitted disease, off the list, can't be chronic either...
They just bullshit and then your brain is going through the disease list. Absolutely fucking infuriating.
>***I find*** two fundamental conditions for the variolation scheme to technically work for a given disease: 1) a less damaging form can be reliably induced and 2) survivors gain long-term immunity. [emphasis mine]
> do not show 1 or 2 are true
QED
Token gesture of humility. He uses it as a jumping point into more arguments for his thesis.
It's the rationalist version of the "Am I wrong? No, it's the children who are wrong" meme, except earnest.
Just make the conclusion ‘eat infected ass’ and this would be a great
a modest proposal satire piece. (Dont do this btw, satire is dead, and
you often end up convincing people of the thing you are trying to
satirize).
Anyway, good to see the rationalists are calling the uk’s position
brave. Esp as experts called it fucking insane.
> Just make the conclusion 'eat infected ass' and this would be a great a modest proposal satire piece. (Dont do this btw, satire is dead, and you often end up convincing people of the thing you are trying to satirize)
And yet imagine the great joy we could harvest from convincing conservatives this is true.
Every time I decide to just completely fucking ignore these idiots
they come up with some new way of being idiotic that sounds more harmful
than the last.
edit: look at the fucking thread they’re now sending green text
emails to public health officials lol.
Prff, bitcoin idiots are way ahead on [the curve on that one.](https://twitter.com/BostonJoan/status/1240626380020289539) Step up your game racist nerds, the greedy nerds are winning.
(Yes, prob the same people :) ).
It would be really interesting to sit face-to-face with these people
and ask some clarifying questions like, “What is the difference between
a T cell and a B cell?”
Man this would be hilarious if it was satire.
i hate everyone on that godforsaken sub
[deleted]
The sneers are coming from inside the post? /r/selfawarewolves ? I’m at a bit of a loss, to be honest
[deleted]
Just make the conclusion ‘eat infected ass’ and this would be a great a modest proposal satire piece. (Dont do this btw, satire is dead, and you often end up convincing people of the thing you are trying to satirize).
Anyway, good to see the rationalists are calling the uk’s position brave. Esp as experts called it fucking insane.
Every time I decide to just completely fucking ignore these idiots they come up with some new way of being idiotic that sounds more harmful than the last.
edit: look at the fucking thread they’re now sending green text emails to public health officials lol.
https://www.reddit.com/r/slatestarcodex/comments/fl01hq/corona_variolation_ii_a_project/fkw6wew/
It would be really interesting to sit face-to-face with these people and ask some clarifying questions like, “What is the difference between a T cell and a B cell?”