If we just let it go, and forget all restrictions we will see a surge
of hospitalizations. At that point more people will die because
hospitals are stretched. Death rates go up - 5% IFR. Maybe even pushing
10% IFR. People who wouldn’t have die now die.
So facing that scenario what we are looking at is more like 1-2% of
the population dies.
Anyways we are beating Covid-19 in San Francisco. There is economic
hardship yes, but it’s solvable with government policy. That we don’t
have that help is deliberate sabotage by the GOP. Btw our new case rate
is 3 per 100k per day. With a positivity test rate of under 1%. Fuck
yes.
Even using his estimates, 0.25% of the US is 750 thousand people dead, with 1.5 million permanently injured. And it's not like the economy would be normal with no restrictions in place, people still want to avoid getting a horrible disease.
Yes thank you!
Air travel and conferences were cancelled before any government did anything. Pretending it’s fine wouldn’t work.
Imagine going out... hey would you like a side of death or lifetime illness with your salad?
Back in early August we needed to take our child to the hospital to do a general anesthesia procedure (crowns, fillings). Luckily because our hospitals are in control, it wasn't risky.
We are reaching 13% positive rates because our gov forgot to take any action which would cost money (apart from big companies) or inconvenience people.
Which is insane as (apart from the old folks homes) we got the disease under control early on, but we just did nothing productive with all that time (and the gov refused to look at some metrics or talk to actual experts who fought ebola).
Yeah I shudder to think what would happen if a country's healthcare system truly collapsed. I think that's more than likely if we "did nothing" to prevent a pandemic that has a baseline death rate like covid does.
Look what happened in New York: Bodies being put in trailers, and hospital workers trying not to stack them over respect for the dead. 1:8 nurse:patient ratio in some hospitals. Dermatologists & Ophthalmologists on the patient care teams.
https://www.statesman.com/news/20201015/texas-coronavirus-hospitalizations-on-rise-again
It's not pretty.
I mean no policy will work once the vast majority of people refuse to go along with it. The draft still exists and you have to register for it, but after the massive revolt against Vietnam and the draft, that option is for all intents and purposes off the table. No one will start a draft because people said no.
And I think this is a problem that the people at the top are ignoring. You can’t cause people lots of pain and expect them to continue to comply with the orders causing that pain. You also cannot mass arrest millions of people without starting a revolution. If we’d had a shorter lockdown, or we’d have supported the average person better, lockdown would still be a fairly viable solution. We did none of that. We didn’t set up track and trace. It’s a giant mess. And since most people are at the “open or be homeless” stage, I think the best we can get is masks and social distance. If the economy gets much worse, we might not get masks even to the degree we have them.
Yes this is a good point. This is the role of top down leadership, which is why its apparent that Trump failed. The tricky bit is he didn't really do anything - which is the point - so his defenders are easily able to point to his actions and say its fine.
I saw someone elsewhere saying that this covid-19 is by design and good: its the states that should be doing things. Then why have the CDC or FDA at all?
The answer is easy: because red states would become third world countries.
As a California resident, my impetus if we were in such a system is to say "ok fine we will sell you our drugs, AFTER we take care of our own." It's the o2 mask on the airplane rule. Help yourself before you help others.
Doing things or not doing them is a choice. What I don’t like is that these choices of measures are *political*. I don’t mean that they’re not science or aren’t in principle good ideas. I just mean that you are choosing what to do based on science and desired outcomes. It’s going to involve trade offs and balancing outcomes and so on, and I think we should admit that. And maybe an open admission of what trade offs we’re making would help bring people along, especially if we start doing other things to make those trade offs hurt less.
It’s also true, touching your second point , that different places have different situations. Not every state has a big tech sector that can make millions doing wfh. Alabama doesn’t have that. They might not have the infrastructure to support it (Alabama again, which in rural areas doesn’t have fast enough internet for zoo) or are based on manufacturing or tourism or something else that just doesn’t work with lockdowns.
Whatever we decide to do needs to work for most people in that area, because once you lose them, it’s over. Once people think doing that lockdown means hunger, or poverty or in some cases making their mental illness worse *they won’t do it.*. I don’t see a way around the will of the people.
It's really weird to see rationalists (I guess "postrats" more specifically) going back to religion, trad aesthetics, and social conservatism, while still clinging on to techno-commercialist political philosophy.
I remember seeing the whole basilisk fiasco summed up as "transhumanist AI worshippers reinvent Pascal's Wager from first principles and proceed to scare themselves silly with it"
So much for rationality, I guess
Makes perfect sense to me. I've been watching this cluster closely since 2010. What do you think pulled them to the singulatarian cluster to begin with? It is, among other things to some other people, a substitute for transcendent religion, for people who can't bring themselves to be part of that but who still have a deep deep need for it. Rather than looking beyond mundane history for that need, they try to contain it within history. Just look at whatshisname, Lukeprog. He had a long long long atheist deconversion blog chronicling him falling out of his Christian church, and then got sucked RIGHT into Yud's cult and started writing obsessively about it on his own website before becoming a full part of the team.
Now that this non-transcendent, civil religion contained entirely within normal history has failed to manifest in mundane reality for a decade many either start going back to transcendent religion to get what they need, or start latching onto other potent easily available on the internet mundane religion-substitutes like classic 19th century nationalism, racialism, etc etc etc. Ordinarily Marxism would be a classic religious attractor, with it literally just being postmillennial Christian eschatology with the nouns swapped out, but for historical reasons those associated with silicon valley are pumped so full of revulsion for that particular civil religion that they're not vulnerable to it.
(Amusingly enough, in this schema Marxism's isomorphism to Christianity means that the Ayn Randian fantasyland that so many of this cluster are vulnerable to is somorphic to theistic Satanism in that it accepts the judgements of how the world works but inverts the value judgements.)
Expect Q apologetics before too long.
Of course he is violently anti vegan, and he has never tried Hummus.
(There is so much more wrong with these tweets, damn. Epistemologically it is a mess, it reads like he gets his information from Sargon of Akkad).
I'm too lazy to write something more substantial, but I have a hunch that much of what's wrong with this community is perfectly exemplified by their attitude towards food (as in obsession with 'rational food', soylent, dog food etc.)
Wait... dog food?
Im thinking of 2 things, first mad max 2, cause im weird, second did they take the funny contrarian take 'achtually you can just eat dog food'and went with it and actually ate dog food?
haha it's an old Gwern post on how it's cheap to live in our time. You could just live in a car and eat dog food etc. I saw it here some time ago. Don't know if someone actually tried it, though.
Ah lol. This is exactly the kind of galaxy brain take you normally make as a funny joke. (I know there are people who lived out of their cars/live on the street btw, and I don't wish that on people, it isn't a great way to live).
Hahah, have to admit I did not see the Christianity coming! But some people def could use their time better by worshipping a god instead of raging on social media.
Lot of rightwingers loop back to Christianity as a form of group control (which also controls for the things they like/dislike, no rightwinger goes back to Christianity and goes 'I wish they were just a little bit less patriarchical'). So many alt-right types are now larping as Orthodox Christians.
No idea on the overlap between Rationalist/Singularity people/LW people and the alt-right btw, see this as a general remark about the alt-right, not an accusation towards rationalists etc.
E: Why the Orthodox church you might wonder? I have no clue, my paranoid assumption is because the Orthodox church is closest to the 'immigration crisis' and a lot of people there are pretty racist/anti immigrant so that fits their ideal. My trollish assumption is they just really really like the hats. And as soon as there is an [official chaos dwarf religion](https://1d4chan.org/images/thumb/1/11/400px-ChaosDwarf.jpg/300px-400px-ChaosDwarf.jpg) they will switch to that. (And yes, I understand the chaos dwarf look was prob based on orthodox priests).
E2: of course: https://twitter.com/RokoMijicUK/status/1306228262843056129 (Well that answers my 'why orthodox' question, because they think it can't be infected with the SJEWs [oow god ... that was a typo, but im leaving it in]. I have no desire to watch the 3 hour long clip which is referenced to, but if the orthodox christian idea actually comes from Moldbug, that would be the cherry on top).
Hahah, must be the hats then... If I even understood him, I was intrigued by the notion of how in the lack of a monopoly of belief or faith people turn to different forms of virtue signaling to signal their righteousness, whereas maybe before just being christian was enough. Like did religion actually absolve people from the need to signal virtues? Could you just be a devoted christian and that’s all the virtue you needed?
Not that I want the world to embrace christianity or anything, but it often feels like there’s a real race nowadays to show you’re worshipping the right idols or causes.
I am still not convinced that "virtue signaling" exists, other than as a concept in the fevered imaginations of reactionaries and crypto-reactionaries, and as a snarl-word that they use in the culture wars.
Twitter (and social media in general) being such a performative platform makes the term "signaling" kind of moot in the first place.
My opinion is that, if it describes anything at all, virtue signaling is describing a universal human desire for others’ approval rather than anything specific to one group. And, if that’s the case, it’s still not really adding anything to the discourse, since ‘most people to one degree or another desire the approval of their peers’ seems like something most people would agree on without needing a derisive label.
This. And it's not just weirdos who are using it in a derogatory way. Unless rightwing Twitter pundits, newspaper columnists and breakfast talkshow hosts are all weirdos. In my view the term has been very badly tainted in mainstream discourse.
Actually, in Christianity, 'virtue signalling' is explicitly forbidden. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_6:5 you are expected to do your praying, and alms giving (and depending on how you interpret this, even more religious works) in private and not expect an earthly reward. (In Judaism iirc it is allowed, so they should all become jews (also good for your IQ ;) )).
This also instantly makes the whole people who believe in believing in god while not believing in god, thing sour. The whole race to believe in something stable for the good of the world is even sillier when look at history btw, the worst atrocities by the church were done when the church wasn't the dominant force. The witchburnings for example took place (but started before) the reformation, when the church was in decline. There is even overlap between this period and the enlightenment. You would expect atheists to know this and not want to go back to this period (but I assume they justify it by going 'well the SJWs are doing witchburnings via cancel culture right now'(*), so the SJW religion is in decline, this is just like the reformation period). But yes you are right that in periods of upheaval people turn to more open signs of religion/virtue signaling (or just something concrete to believe in, see the rise of Qanon during the uncertainty of the pandemic). This alt-right stuff is even weirder however, as they are joining a religion which is often a) not in their location, b) has a few values which counters their earlier values greatly (see rooshv (the rapist pickupartist) turning orthodox) c) something which isn't in a powerful position at all (orthodox christianity is in that much of a thing in the western west (urgh... hope you get what I mean) iirc), which is weird if you are looking for a thing to believe in to if you are looking for something which creates a stable monopoly (I guess they think it is more stable and the monopoly will come later).
And you can't 'just be a devoted christian and that’s all the virtue you needed', because virtue is determined by god. And gods ways are unknowable, you can only try your best. (or course, the papacy etc and priests all change this a bit, as they as representatives of god on earth can give you absolution etc).
Note, I was brought up as a Catholic (I'm no longer religious), I live in a country that is half Protestant half Catholic (on the subject of Christianity, not counting the rest), and stuff is different all over the place. (But I do personally have a big dislike for people obviously performing religious rites in public to be seen as religious).
URgh, this grew out of scope a bit sorry, and it is very rambly.
*: which if they do is a nice case of confusing your own propagandistic label for something for truth, if your twitter account is removed you die in real life or something.
Very interesting read, thanks! Ah yes ofc it’s all up to god in religion, I meant having faith to be socially absolved from the need to further signal to others like “I’m christian, I have faith, I’m good” when christianity or whatever religion is the norm.
Because it mentioned the threat, if there is an option it doesn't follow through, it will create a loophole for people in the past to go 'well, he will not torture us as it is a waste of time'. So because people might think that, the AGI needs to torture people, to make the threat real, if it didn't occur to anybody ever, there would be no need for the AGI to follow through.
It is all to get those final % of doubters to donate to the AGI cause. And only the threat of eternal damnation really motivates the flock.
(E: You need to have a lot of very weird science fictiony assumptions for the whole basilisk argument to work btw, so I could be missing the ones you are having issues with).
That just means the Rationalist Brain Worms haven't eaten your brain. It's like saying you don't "get" Q. Of course you don't, you're not a crazy person.
I mean, I guess there’s an argument that the current approach of US,
UK and many other countries of having half-hearted restrictions that
make people isolated and unemployed but still don’t stop the virus
spreading is kind of a worst of both worlds.
But as a mid-twenties, previously very fit and healthy person who’s
been unable to go for the lightest of jogs for seven months, I say
suppress the damn virus.
And what if immunity doesn’t last? What if it infects the whole
population every year? Even if his absurdly low guess of 0.5% with long
covid is true, those 0.5%s every year will start to add up.
Honestly right now, I’d take Farquaad over this guy.
Imagine this type of person during the war effort in World War II.
“Well guys, it’s been six months and we still haven’t won the war.
Clearly we should just give up and let the Nazis take over Europe; all
of this drafting and rationing is hurting us more than helping us.
Besides, Europe will probably be better off as a unified state under
Hitler, though it’s true a lot of Jews will die. Let’s just get life
back to normal.”
Didn’t he want to start a medical high tech wikipedia search
company? nope that was Vassar, I can’t keep
all these people straight.
Did he also forget that this will just suck the hospital capacity out
of everything, so everything becomes more deadly? You can’t be treated
for Appendicitis if the hospital is full.
And well there goes all the talk from the Scotts on how the
rationalists were all right about Covid and we are monsters for sneering
at them and making Covid worse.
I mean, we can still beat it with lockdowns. If we all stay home,
mask up, etc for a month, it will just go away again, none of these
measures have lost effectiveness.
Also rationalism is seeing a range of possible fatality rates, and
just picking the one that fits your narrative. His 0.5% long term
stat might be off by a … little bit:
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1317664436451233793 ‘Ooops we gave
70% of the people organ damage because some rationalist made a
mistake’ Reading is essential.
Gives me the warm and fuzzies to think that The West™ cannot sustain
a protracted resistance to much of anything when it finally comes to the
imperial metropole itself.
Also the simulation hypothesis would indicate that we live in the
Basilisk’s simulation at this very moment. Today’s torture consists of
reading Roko’s post. I’m pure Aryan phenotype with a 200 IQ so you
needn’t fact check any of that.
who will cry over the “fuss” of this individual’s death i wonder
If we just let it go, and forget all restrictions we will see a surge of hospitalizations. At that point more people will die because hospitals are stretched. Death rates go up - 5% IFR. Maybe even pushing 10% IFR. People who wouldn’t have die now die.
So facing that scenario what we are looking at is more like 1-2% of the population dies.
Anyways we are beating Covid-19 in San Francisco. There is economic hardship yes, but it’s solvable with government policy. That we don’t have that help is deliberate sabotage by the GOP. Btw our new case rate is 3 per 100k per day. With a positivity test rate of under 1%. Fuck yes.
As expected of the fevered intellect that concocted all that Basilisk claptrap.
What a surprise, a “rationalist” desperately attempting to pass off their selfishness as enlightened utilitarianism.
…Well, someone’s condemned himself to eternal torture within a Basilisk.
I mean, I guess there’s an argument that the current approach of US, UK and many other countries of having half-hearted restrictions that make people isolated and unemployed but still don’t stop the virus spreading is kind of a worst of both worlds.
But as a mid-twenties, previously very fit and healthy person who’s been unable to go for the lightest of jogs for seven months, I say suppress the damn virus.
And what if immunity doesn’t last? What if it infects the whole population every year? Even if his absurdly low guess of 0.5% with long covid is true, those 0.5%s every year will start to add up.
Honestly right now, I’d take Farquaad over this guy.
Imagine this type of person during the war effort in World War II. “Well guys, it’s been six months and we still haven’t won the war. Clearly we should just give up and let the Nazis take over Europe; all of this drafting and rationing is hurting us more than helping us. Besides, Europe will probably be better off as a unified state under Hitler, though it’s true a lot of Jews will die. Let’s just get life back to normal.”
This is gifted child syndrome projected onto “the West” as a whole.
The entire west is as bad as the US? The US is the west…?
I’ll take “things straight out of a comic book supervillain’s script” for 00, Alex.
Didn’t he want to start a medical high tech wikipedia search company?nope that was Vassar, I can’t keep all these people straight.Did he also forget that this will just suck the hospital capacity out of everything, so everything becomes more deadly? You can’t be treated for Appendicitis if the hospital is full.
And well there goes all the talk from the Scotts on how the rationalists were all right about Covid and we are monsters for sneering at them and making Covid worse.
I mean, we can still beat it with lockdowns. If we all stay home, mask up, etc for a month, it will just go away again, none of these measures have lost effectiveness.
Also rationalism is seeing a range of possible fatality rates, and just picking the one that fits your narrative.
His 0.5% long term stat might be off by a … little bit: https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1317664436451233793 ‘Ooops we gave 70% of the people organ damage because some rationalist made a mistake’Reading is essential.Gives me the warm and fuzzies to think that The West™ cannot sustain a protracted resistance to much of anything when it finally comes to the imperial metropole itself.
Also the simulation hypothesis would indicate that we live in the Basilisk’s simulation at this very moment. Today’s torture consists of reading Roko’s post. I’m pure Aryan phenotype with a 200 IQ so you needn’t fact check any of that.