Alt-rationalist dickheads are trying to prove US voter fraud but lack any experience in basic statistics. They are stunned to find that non-linear relations exist and that some people share a name.
(https://twitter.com/toad_spotted/status/1324515991850725379)
posted on November 07, 2020 02:19 AM by
u/DELETED
86
u/bayesleaf38 pointsat 1604730165.000000
he deleted his earlier version where he literally forgot to drop
zeros and thus found “brazen fraud”
Oh. I wanted to link to that tweet. Well done. Still, such a dipshit.
Also, his exercise with using Benford's Law and sample sizes < 30: almost sublime in its stupidity.
Well yeah why would you ever talk to anyone or read anything that’s been written about a topic when you can instead just make up a bunch of assumptions based on your existing biases, call them “priors” or “heuristics”, and call it a day?
they’d better hurry up before any more annoyed
judges summarily dismiss any more frivolous lawsuits from their
guy’s campaign due to the lack of any evidence of malfeasance, in the
one place where that evidence would be really helpful, from the very
professionals whose job it has been to watch for this kind of
evidence
Reminds me of how every so often /r/math gets a post from someone
talking about how statistics proves that Ron Paul got cheated out of the
2012 primary.
Am i crazy or are these charts perfectly consistent with what polls
of how people who would vote said they would?
Differences in the correlation and line of perfect agreement are
explained by dufferences in the total fraction of whose final total had
been counted by 4 am. Most of Trump’s votes were on election day and so
had already been counted. Most of Biden’s votes were by mail and counted
after 4 am.
Yeah, the quantiles plot is also particularly bizarre. They've been told explicitly that the flow of votes should not be perfectly linear and then they test and discover, it's not linear! Holy shit dude! Data science!
I’m not sure of your overall sanity, but with this you’re not wrong. As I understand it some of the first to discover this retracted their speculations when they realized what they were seeing.
Is it just me or have rationalists moved way to the right and become
more conspiratorial in the last few years? I see a lot of “all science
is fake and only exists to further the SJW agenda” and “maybe god is
real and intelligent design is true” from the former “Science, bitch.”
and “in this moment, I am euphoric” crowd.
I feel like it's a combination of some moving right and the people who weren't all in distancing themselves. I know people who were Yudkowsky fans in their teens/early 20s who roll their eyes at the whole thing now.
I love the responder who’s desperately there saying “do you know R?
Because I don’t know R, but here’s some R code I found that might say
what we want it to say, so hopefully you or someone else who knows R
will come along and tell me that it tells us what we already know?”
It's up to you man, I respect your choice... I just like using that one to tease people, because this sub is schizy a f, I bet half its members follow QAnon.
he deleted his earlier version where he literally forgot to drop zeros and thus found “brazen fraud”
is this what they call “cope”?
“Statistics can’t be that hard, can they?”
[deleted]
they’d better hurry up before any more annoyed judges summarily dismiss any more frivolous lawsuits from their guy’s campaign due to the lack of any evidence of malfeasance, in the one place where that evidence would be really helpful, from the very professionals whose job it has been to watch for this kind of evidence
Reminds me of how every so often /r/math gets a post from someone talking about how statistics proves that Ron Paul got cheated out of the 2012 primary.
The stata plot that he imported into MS Paint and just started drawing random lines on: that’s how you do regression baby!
lmao.
Is it me or is this the most nonsense statistic ever
Am i crazy or are these charts perfectly consistent with what polls of how people who would vote said they would?
Differences in the correlation and line of perfect agreement are explained by dufferences in the total fraction of whose final total had been counted by 4 am. Most of Trump’s votes were on election day and so had already been counted. Most of Biden’s votes were by mail and counted after 4 am.
tfw you refuse to believe a president could lose by a few points in a state he previously won by a hair.
Is it just me or have rationalists moved way to the right and become more conspiratorial in the last few years? I see a lot of “all science is fake and only exists to further the SJW agenda” and “maybe god is real and intelligent design is true” from the former “Science, bitch.” and “in this moment, I am euphoric” crowd.
Great application of the rationalist maxim “if I put math on top of my stupid ideas, it makes them smart and true.”
I love the responder who’s desperately there saying “do you know R? Because I don’t know R, but here’s some R code I found that might say what we want it to say, so hopefully you or someone else who knows R will come along and tell me that it tells us what we already know?”
This appears to have nothing to do with Rationalism. You sound like a crazy person. Maybe you should smoke less cannabis.