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Like the title says - why does Yudkowsky et al think that the Many Worlds Interpretation is “obviously” true? Normally I’d go to the primary sources for a thing like this but that guy is the avatar of tl;dr.

My understanding - neither a physicist nor a philosopher of science - is that Many Worlds is a metaphysical concept, intended to provide a philosophical justification for the weird but accurate observable behaviour that the actual Quantum Theory math produces. Which I guess is why, on a really shallow level: Rationalism has solved all philosophical problems -> whatever Eliezar says goes in the metaphysical realm. But I’m curious what the actual argument he makes is.

Not sure, but I am a physicist and am definitely bringing out the popcorn for this thread.

Also a physicist, and all the physicists I know take a very "who cares" approach to this question. Don't get me wrong, I know there are serious researchers looking into this and are genuinely excited by it, but for me it's very much a "fun drunk argument" question.
Ex(ish) physicist here (shutup PhD programs are inhuman when you have dependents) same boat. I maybe it gets the theoroticians sweaty but all I really cared about was whether the numbers you get at the end. "The truth" seems less relevant than whether it helped you make stuff or not.
Lol PhD programs are PUNISHING if you have any real-life responsibility whatsoever. Plus, they're not all they're cracked up to be.
It crushed me, I could absolutely not care for sick at the time wife on poverty wages pulling 1000-2200 on the regular. I miss the work and some of the people but that kind of high competitive insane stress environment is not one for me. I wonder how things might be different if we reformed the system to a more mutually cooperative and nurturing one quite frequently. Like if relatively privileged me got squeezed out how many great minds from much much less fortunate backgrounds are we not nurturing and benefiting from because they're basically from the wrong socioeconomic or cultural group to succeed.
It would probably be more productive for society. Stressed out and tired people make mistakes.
I get a very strong “I had to survive this hazing, so now you’ve got to do it too” vibe out of PhD programs.

The deep reason is that he read a popsci book he liked

Yeah that’s basically my take but shorter
the reason he "read" that popsci book (he only read half of the introduction) was because he read a third rate science fiction book one time. all his thinking is based on the chintzy sf version of the theory.
permutation city is not third rate surely egan giving yud a cameo as a waddling moron in one of his later books is one of the all time classic sneers edit: here it is: https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=V6d0WfXuHUsC&lpg=PT34&ots=OgK3c973uw&pg=PT34#v=onepage&q&f=false >“I’m Nate Caplan.” He offered her his hand, and she shook it. In response to her sustained look of puzzlement he added, “My IQ is one hundred and sixty. I’m in perfect physical and mental health. And I can pay you half a million dollars right now, any way you want it. [...] when you’ve got the bugs ironed out, I want to be the first. When you start recording full synaptic details and scanning whole brains in high resolution—” [...] “You can always reach me through my blog,” he panted. “Overpowering Falsehood dot com, the number one site for rational thinking about the future—” it goes on for a page or so with the main character lamenting how stupid cryonics/uploading is, and ends with her shutting his hand in the door as she tries to get rid of him lol owned in print by your hero, ouch
a conflation of Yudkowsky, Hanson and a bit of money
and i guess Bryan Caplan from the name?

I mean, his arguments for Many Worlds aren’t great. But you can certainly find some physicists who have very similar opinions. David Deutsch obviously, Stephen Hawking also once said MWI was “trivially true”. You can also count in Roger Penrose who says quantum mechanics implies MWI as true and that’s one of the reasons why he thinks quantum mechanics has to be broken somehow: https://web.archive.org/web/20071023063403/http://www.sciencewatch.com/interviews/roger_penrose2.htm

My perspective from the sidelines is that of the physicists who think it is worth thinking about a lot of them like many worlds or at least agree that it makes some amount of sense - but with the larger mainstream concluding that this is ultimately not really something to worry about since it doesn’t lead to falsifiable predictions so it’s pointless guessing.

I'm not a physicist, but I always hated penrose for all the quantum woo he foments. His theory about microtubules and consciousness seems almost to have religious undertones.
*quantum gravity woo actually. But I'd argue that it's a productive kind of woo since while out there he tends to approach it with enough rigor to allow search for experimental falsification. His conformal cyclic cosmology sort of reminds me of the Many Worlds hypothesis: it's very elegant in a way that makes it understandable why it's attractive even if it's not very interesting in practice (and very probably wrong).
> it's a productive kind of woo since while out there he tends to approach it with enough rigor to allow search for experimental falsification I'll grant you that, he's not some Chopra.. but those theories still sounds like a huge god of the gaps, based on the premise they had to find some way to hack determinism. I mean, I can't really claim he's malicious in this, but a lot of other people following him are definitively. You wouldn't believe how many snakeoil salesman I have seen flexing on mainstream science "having dogmas" and shit, after having handwaved two slides about this stuff.
I'm kinda sad to hear this, since most of my knowledge of QM comes from hacking my way through *The Road to Reality*. Well, into. I can usually make it several whole chapters in before my brain stops following along in detail. 😅
I wasn't expecting them to be great! This is called sneer club, after all 😉 I'm just curious what they are. (Ditto for Stephen Hawking, I guess, although I imagine his show a better understanding of what QM actually is.)
Later in life, [Hawking make some remarks](https://web.archive.org/web/20120110063322/https://www.hawking.org.uk/godel-and-the-end-of-physics.html) about no longer believing there must be "an ultimate theory that can be formulated as a finite number of principles". It's hard to tell from a fairly informal presentation, but it sounds a bit like he gave some serious thought to the possibility that quantum mechanics would have to be fixed up somehow to make it work with gravity. Back in the day, Feynman suggested --- in a "hey, wouldn't it be neat if" way --- that gravity itself might be a consequence of quantum mechanics breaking down. (Feynman is a good illustration of how it can be hard to put physicists' views into simple boxes. He was harsh on Everett in '57, but presented the "Monster Wavefunction" as a legitimate possibility in the early '60s, eventually saying of MWI [in the '80s](https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02650179), "It's possible, but I'm not very happy with it.")

The rationalsphere exalts and relies on popsci explanations because they refuse to delve deeper into the actual science.

Why many world when few world do trick?

^^sorry

more worlds = better than

Sneeringly, it’s obviously true because otherwise his entire body of work would be invalidated. Can’t adjust your priors like that, it’s Not Done in rationality.

MWI and modal realism are strictly different concepts, with the one being a scientific explanation for quantum phenomena and the latter being a metaphysical explanation for phenomena in logic

I don’t know if you’re conflating the two but your bringing up philosophy and metaphysics suggests to me that you’re doing that

MWI enthusiasts think that it preserves a common sense understanding of reality by adding to quantum weirdness a myriad of universes which split off from each other whenever a quantum event is observed; it isn’t the metaphysics of modal realism because modal realists (most famously David Lewis) aim for an account of logical necessity

Yudkowsky’s account of MWI is fairly standard, even if both grandiose and shallow - a pop-science understanding of the relevant physics, which I’ll admit is sort of where I’m coming from too, although I have some background knowledge at a higher level - in that he wants to do the same thing: preserve realism about physical objects without throwing our hands up in the air and saying “shut up and calculate”

Speaking in my capacity as a philosopher of science, the basic idea is as stated above: MWI fans want to say “reality is as real as we already found it, not a mere mathematical construct”; MWI fans like Yudkowsky add the auxiliary hypothesis that there are multiple universes which exist side-by-side (so to speak) which are all as real as each other

The distinction between the metaphysics and the physics is that the latter are at least internally supposed to be provable by observation

Yudkowsky’s own arguments for this are vague and unimpressively so, and drawn from pop-science and his insistence - ironically given what I’ve already said - on a naturalistic metaphysics which demands amongst other things such as utilitarianism and realism about personal identity, that quantum fluctuations be as real as you, your body, your cat etc.

> MWI enthusiasts think that it preserves a common sense understanding of reality by adding to quantum weirdness a myriad of universes which split off from each other whenever a quantum event is observed Just to interject here a little: That pop-sci description of MWI is repeated a lot but it kind of misses the entire point of the MWI by still referencing the act of observation as having some physical relevance. The entire idea of MWI as envisioned by Everett was that "observation" isn't in any way special. What happens is that the entire universe evolves unitarily according to some global Hamiltonian and as such is in a "superposition" which you can conceptualize as different "worlds".
Oh yeah sorry! I didn’t mean to make that goof, it wasn’t what I meant. My intention was in the different sense of “observation” as “derived from observation of the fact of quantum phenomena”. You’re absolutely right about e.g. Everett.
One thing that I find interesting is that there are serious not at all metaphysical arguments that can be made against MWI, along the following lines: https://arxiv.org/abs/0705.2357 MWI seems like this invincible unfalsifiable matter of opinion thing, but it really is not; it can either persist or vanish like a bad dream after there is a satisfactory unification of quantum mechanics and GR. That is to say we don’t know if the complete theory will have macroscopic superpositions, or sacrifices those somehow due to having to match general relativity.
YeahI entirely agree, and it’s one of the principal reasons I’m quite insistent on drawing a strong line between MWI and other “Possible Worlds” stuff like Modal Realism, Actualism etc. It’s why in the above stuff I focused on the sociological account of why MWI is popular with people like Yud and swerved away from the physics itself
Yes that makes sense. Theres the question “do things implied by math exist” (like atoms), then “what about those that weren’t actually used to produce the result”. And the latter one is very close to modal realism and the question about the world with a slightly different value of a physical constant. Edit: although i think many worlders often kind of try to conflate the two, comparing MWI to atoms back when Mach was denying atoms all over Boltzmann. The distinction being atoms were far more indispensable. Then in physics theres the deeply technical way over my head question “does that crap at least look compatible with GR”, and this is so beyond Yudkowsky he wouldn't even know it can be an issue.
Ah, so if quantum gravity were to say that waveform collapse is a real thing that actually happens, then MWI is ruled out? (But not modal realism since *that's* metaphysical.)
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I see your point (and Heller’s, although for otherwise irrelevant reasons I don’t necessarily agree with Heller), but my main point about Yudkowsky comes from the distinction between causally connected worlds (as in MWI) and causally disconnected *possible worlds* (as in Modal Realism). Even the quotes you give from the Yud don’t rely on non-causal relationships *between* worlds in the way that Lewis’s metaphysics does. Instead Yud wants us to think about utilitarian ethics as applying to *causally connected* worlds.The distinction is important because the causal relationship implied by MWI doesn’t apply to Possible Worlds at least prima facie. I’ll check out the paper if I get the chance though, sounds fun.
> he wants to do the same thing: preserve realism about physical objects without throwing our hands up in the air and saying “shut up and calculate” I haven't looked too much at Yudkowski's writing on this, but why do you think he's fixated on MWI as opposed to any non-informational interpretation e.g. Bohmian mechanics? If anything the Bohmian description of the world is far more real than MWI. (I suspect the answer is that he watched sliders in the 90s, but maybe there's something deeper) [Bohmian mechanics, for those who aren't up on different interpretations of QM, posits that the quantum wavefunction isn't just a mathematical convenience, but a "pilot wave" that quantum particles follow.]
My excessively charitable understanding is that - in spite of the fact he’s vague on the specifics - what he wants is the *most realist possible* interpretation as he sees it Bohm would be a viable alternative in that respect, but as you indicate the likeliest thing is that - as usual - he latched on to a certain idea at a young age and wouldn’t let go But as I mentioned above it’s hard to see this as anything but very vague
An actual expert! Thanks, internet! Ok, I am definitely missing some parts here. What is Modal Realism?
Modal Realism - again most famously espoused by David Lewis - is a thesis that attempts to account for issues raised by Modal Logic, which is roughly the study of “possibility” and “necessity” as they apply to logic Concerns about modality (necessity and possibility) emerged particularly in analytic philosophy during the 50s - although don’t quote me on that, I might be misremembering - and came to a head in the 60s, at least for Anglo philosophers. Modal logic had been developed within analytic philosophy long before this, but certain issues - which I won’t go into - arose around that time. Saul Kripke and David Lewis re-examined the concept of “possible worlds” from an analytic point of view under the influence of the likes of Leibniz. A “possible world” in the modern sense of Lewis and Kripke is a causally closed (meaning we can’t access it except perhaps by the use of logic) world which may or may not exist but which there are discoverable facts about. Modal Realism is the thesis that those worlds *actually exist* no less real than our own. It’s an attempt to bite the bullet on “how can we make judgements about possibility and necessity if those worlds aren’t real” (this is where it gets too complicated for me to bother explaining briefly). So the difference between MWI and Modal Realism is that in MWI the events are causally connected, whereas in Modal Realism the connections are purely metaphysically and acausally related. The reason for bringing it up is that the two are often confused.
Thank you!
There has been some work in connecting them I believe
Yeah this is true, mathematical universe stuff and all that, but it’s considered unconventional as far as I understand, and I wasn’t gonna go into the weeds I prefer letting people do their own research from the basics I can give them
I'm not sure how far he's officially embraced it, but Yudkowsky liked Tegmark's mathematical universe.
Yeah I vaguely remember that he had an attempted affiliation there Back in the day on /r/badphilosophy Tegmark was a figure of fun for a lot of us - with the exception of the guy who turned out to be a paedophile Snide remarks aside, it isn’t hard to see how Tegmark would be seen as just silly, and on the same lines as Yudkowsky
>Tegmark would be seen as just silly, and on the same lines as Yudkowsky I don't like Tegmark at all, when he talks with total certainity about the stuff that happens in other universes i can't help but think about those crackpots who talk about the different species of aliens and ghosts.
Tegmark is 100% in with MIRI and the OpenAI crowd's laundered version, though he soft-pedals the MIRIness of the ideas. I skimmed his awful book *Life 3.0* once.
so would it be correct to say MWIists and modal realists are working towards the same hypothesis with different angles?
Personally I wouldn’t say so, no, my explanation above tries to point out that the multiple worlds of Modal Realism and MWI differ in important ways - both in origin as ideas, and in practical executation as ideas “Towards the same hypothesis” is too strong, you can certainly compare and contrast the ideas but they’re not different angles on the same idea

Stripping away a lot of verbiage and what seem like ex-post-facto justifications, I think the underlying psychology is that he found the* MWI the “simplest” interpretation and rolled with it, getting that thrill that comes with proclaiming belief in something that you can present as counterintuitive. It’s a harsh truth, or an uncomfortable truth, or a strange truth — you know, the kind of truth that makes you a more impressive person for espousing.

*Obligatory footnote that, in years of following arguments in quantum foundations, I don’t think I’ve met two MWI’ers who have agreed on how to wring probabilities out of it and make it an actual predictive scientific theory. The formal literature will say that the attempts to do so have been “many and generally incompatible”, but if anything that undersells the disagreements you’ll get at conferences or in e-mail threads. The Rationalist take seems to be that the scientific community is broken because the scientists can’t agree on the simple answer, indicating that the scientists are not sufficiently Rational. Though if the answer were really so simple, it perhaps wouldn’t come in so many flavors, each defended in articles that run to dozens of pages….

I wouldn’t overthink it. It’s a cool sounding idea that’s reasonably easy for a casual person to feel like they understand, and lets him come up with all kinds of sci-fi-ish stuff on top of that. Any other explanation he’s given is just a rationalization of why what he wants to be true must be correct.

Because it allows him and his followers to propose all kinds of batshit crazy multiverse stuff without any kind of evidence. IIRC Roko once said on twitter that the basilisk actually came from some MWI bullshit.

Well, it is the only way to quantum immortality. (I have no clue btw, I just like the … I think Neil Gaiman … short story about quantum immortality).

I never understood why Yud was so out of shape, i mean, if he wants to be uploaded and live forever shouldn't he take care of his body so he's alive when the whole mind upload stuff happens? Then i realized the reason for this may actually be some quantum immortality stuff. He lost a lot of weight recently though.
He's banking on the acausal AI gods resurrecting him and uploading him into the hottest robot body in town.

So I don’t have any reason to assume that any of these concepts are being used correctly, but if I had to reconstruct his claim the way he says it:

Yudkowsky’s understanding of Reductionism and Probability Anti-Realism, two positions that he defends, is that it should be possible to set up an experiment so that every quantum element in the experiment space is exactly identical every time you run the experiment, and that every single time you run the experiment it should produce an identical result. But non MWI positions in quantum physics suggest this might not be true: that you might run the same quantum state experiment, and 75% of the time get one result and 25% of the time get another. The very possibility of this result is a threat to the simultaneous truth of Reduction and Anti-Realism, so these other models must be rejected, leaving MWI as the only surviving choice.

So basically his argument is that in the other interpretations, the randomness of wavefuncrion collapse is real and he hates that? I suppose that makes sense, since his project is based on super hardcore clockwork determinism, simulating a person only works if you can actually predict *everything*.
Nah, the randomness is preserved either way, as I understand it. The difference is whether quantum randomness should be treated as indexical (i.e. you can't know where you will be within the wave function in advance) or fully stochastic (i.e. you can't know what the singular outcome of a wavefunction collapse will be in advance). If EY wanted to preserve clockwork determinism for aesthetic reasons, then I think he would select a hidden variable theory of QM, like pilot-wave theory.
I think that, insofar as he understands Hidden Variable and Reduction, he expects that hidden to be a punt: that the "real" answer is one of the other answers and it's just a question of will we discover the variables or not. And in terms of preserving randomness, something something "figuring out what universe you're in" hey look over there!