posted on April 16, 2021 10:48 PM by
u/wallofsneer
23
u/wallofsneer30 pointsat 1618613423.000000
I believe the best choice is cloning. More specifically, cloning John
von Neumann one million times.
Let’s try to quantify the present value of a JvN, starting with a
rough and extremely conservative estimate: say von Neumann had an IQ of
180 and we clone a million of them. Due to regression to the mean, the
average clone will be less intelligent than the original; assuming
heritability of .85, we’d expect an average IQ of 168. This would
increase average US IQ by 0.21 points. Going by Jones & Schneider’s
estimate of a 6% increase in GDP per point in national IQ, we might
expect about 1.26% higher output. If the effect was immediate, that
would be about 70 billion per year, but we should probably expect a few
decades before it took effect. Even this extremely modest estimate puts
the value of a JvN at about 70k per year. Assuming the JvNs become
productive after 20 years, affect GDP for 50 years, 2% GDP growth, and a
3% discount rate, the present value of a JvN is around .4 million.
hahahahaha
using "heritability" to predict the output of *literal cloning*
fun fact: did you know that "home town" is a highly heritable trait? This is because a large portion of people live in the same hometown as their parents, which is how "heritability" is calculated.
So with the methodology of this post, we can conclude that roughly 60% of the clones will be born in Budapest.
btw, this is why the use of "heritability" to justify eugenics is particularly disgusting.
Like, Americans kidnapped and enslaved huge numbers of people from Africa, and have continually invented new and creative ways to torture them and keep them in poverty.
slavery, "reconstruction", Jim Crow, Klan terrorism, redlining, the prison industrial complex, the ongoing segregation of education, the ongoing segration of industry, cop terrorism, the complete destruction of Black wealth with every economic crash, intelligence agencies instantly infiltrating and murdering any organization that wants to liberate Black people...
So when you look at the rate of poverty across generations, people whose parents were poor... Tend to remain poor.
Eugenicists look at this and conclude "well, they must remain poor because they're inherently generically inferior!"
it's the "why are you hitting yourself" of genocidal empires
Maybe this is what inevitably follows if people unironically believe
all the bad-faith dogwhistles:
The outcome gap between Us and Them is due to Their intrinsic
ineluctable disadvantages: All inequality is 100% genetic, no social
intervention can achieve anything, a baby von Neumann sent to America’s
worst public schools would achieve the same contributions to humanity as
one sent to the Fasori Gimnázium and personally tutored by Gábor
Szegő
IQ is somewhat correlated with a wide variety of unearned
advantages positive outcomes in life: IQ is the only measure
of a person’s value to society
An artificial general intelligence would be immensely powerful to
change or destroy the world like a planet-destroying meteor because of
its immense IQ: a battalion of highly genetically intelligent humans
would be highly powerful like nuclear weapons
To Much DnD. Where The Wily Wizard Tasks the brave adventurers to go on an Epic Quest. (do note that the capitalization in this case is done by us, to mock them, actual capitalization might vary).
Ah the s-curves, important part of the book The singularity is near,
which predicted human level AI, last year (any prediction about AGI
always puts it 20 years into the future, no idea why, but it seems a
pretty good constant). Meanwhile we can’t even write AI that drives on
roads without crashing or freaking out over numbers on advertisements
because they might be speed limits.
20 years is good because if you're right people will still vaguely remember you enough to support you when you say "called it!" but if you're wrong no one will care at all. Charles Murray has been playing this game with dysgenics for decades.
Sure, but we have the problems that we get tired, emotional, distracted, and we get that a turtle with a postit note on it saying 'truck' isnt a truck.
Fully self driving cars is just another one of those, predictions about ai which didnt come true, only because of Musks arrogance and imagined genius, he predicted in 5 years and not 20.
IMO this idea that we would have fully autonomous vehicles in the early 2020's being taken seriously by anyone is a worse indictment of US tech culture than Juicero or Theranos.
It is worse, the promise was human level ai in 2020. (Predicted, due to moores law and napkin calcs about how much transistors is equivalent to a neuron).
I think that there is a difference between talking out of your ass about what you think a vague "someone" will do in the next 30 years compared to spinning an obviously false promise about what your own company will have in the next 3-5 years.
Unless you were referring to people who still thought that was the right timeline in 2017. I know there were a few but I don't remember it being a mainstream opinion in the same way that autonomous cars has been.
I am not making this up. What the actual fuck
Maybe this is what inevitably follows if people unironically believe all the bad-faith dogwhistles:
unearned advantagespositive outcomes in life: IQ is the only measure of a person’s value to societyAh the s-curves, important part of the book The singularity is near, which predicted human level AI, last year (any prediction about AGI always puts it 20 years into the future, no idea why, but it seems a pretty good constant). Meanwhile we can’t even write AI that drives on roads without crashing or freaking out over numbers on advertisements because they might be speed limits.
Sooooooo…
You just finished reading The Three Body Problem?
“Doctor Grant, my dear Doctor Satler, welcome … to von Neumann Park.”
I don’t think these people actually know how difficult it is to clone a seventy year old rotting corpse.
Margin note
r/SelfAwarewolves