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Scott decides that BLM protests are solely responsible for the 2020 homocide spike, rejecting all other evidence (https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-the-bb9)
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I mostly just wanted to see what folks here thought of this post and its predecessor. I regret that I cannot spell homicide and cannot edit the title.

ETA: I don’t even want to argue the point here: that’s just wrestling a pig. What’s shocking to me about this piece is the *certainty* of Scott’s conclusions. We had an unprecedented global pandemic, nationwide lockdowns, economic dislocation, school closures and large-scale protests and policing changes all within a space of three months. How can you possibly have any confidence that one of these unprecedented changes is *the* cause? Scott doesn’t have a convincing answer to this question, nor does he qualify his claim: he states that the protests are the *primary* contributor and then tosses away any countervailing evidence (e.g., clear evidence that the spike began before the protests) as “outliers” or just dismisses them outright. There’s no mask here, there isn’t even makeup.

Dont worry he also thinks the agressive lgbt protests didnt help or made their case worse in the 70/80s. He is the walking tone police, and like all cops he will just ignore all other evidence.
I read that whole post and the whole comment section and only one guy pointed out that the gun sales statistic is meaningless since most guns are illegal and wouldn't be recorded. Either they were brought through an individual sale (likely) or stolen, both of which are not stats that are picked up. Because of that it's entirely possible for a 2% uplift in gun sales to result in 30% uplift in murders, we don't know the actual numbers, but it could have been a 500% uplift in arms sold in individual sales to felons during that time.

Scott cherry-picking evidence? no surprise, totally rational

Not gonna read the post—man needs to learn brevity—but this tracks with his other racist opinions.

I'd rather he didn't learn brevity. Boring racism is less effective than punchy concise racism.
I mean if I'm wishing for things that won't happen I wish he'd stop being racist.
*dubstep*

People in the comments defending convicted murderer Derek Chauvin who we all literally watched kill a man on national tv.

The grey tribe is about how boring their prose is, not their political opinions.

Barely related but man these guys really love the word “codex”

All his blog titles are anagrams of his name, aren't they? I guess "codex" makes it easier.
They're anagrams of his pseudonym, yes. (Alexander is not his last name.)
Well, it is his middle name
Yeah he clearly kept the “codex” as a brand of some sort
[deleted]
Good sneer.

Hey, he has a brand to maintain. And that brand is “racist shmuck.”

I can’t be bothered to read the run-on dribbled drivel (ribble?) in full, but does Scott at any point wrestle with the fact that the murder rate in the U.S. is absolute bonkers compared to other western countries? The charts he has in the original post show the US at 6 murders per 100,00 and the UK at 10 murders per million. You’d think a full 6x difference in the murder rate would cause him to pause and wonder whether the policing was really all that effective. Not only that, but, why are any of these murders occurring at all? How does that intersect with the pandemic going into its 4th month? Maybe the fact that the pandemic help came mainly in the form of unemployment, which doesn’t help those who aren’t legally employed, might start to create some issues?

I skimmed both posts, and I don’t think so. Seems like a “correlation therefore it must be causative” analysis.

Scott forgot the most important question, did cops, some of them off duty, shoot more people?We can tell more cops doesnt cause less shootings (most policed country in the western world also has the most shootings), perhaps more angry cops actually causes more shootings.

Did vigilante behaviour among cops increase?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2022/02/09/fatal-police-shootings-record-2021/ Police shootings are up yoy
Jesus christ, I was joking and giving an example of a different type of, out of the box, heterodox, contrarian way to explain the increased deaths. (At least the increase of police shootings doesnt seem to be as bid as the increase in deaths (of course this is the amount of police shootings that we know cops were involved, there is aslo the high amount of 'suicides' from blm protestors and the high amount of proud killers and punishers fans among the usa cops).