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To be fair you have to have a very high iq to understand dath ilan (https://i.redd.it/jj8qr03aucl91.jpg)
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Literally just a religion at this point.

On a more verbose note, “society would be better if everyone just understood Economics 101” is such a College Guy take that it’s genuinely embarrassing that people like Yudkowsky, decades out of college, haven’t grown out of it.

I don't think it's that embarrassing that Yud, a dude who's never been to college, is still at a "freshman year first time smoking pot" level of discourse. What *is* embarrassing is the number of non-high-school-aged people who seem to think that this level of discourse is mindblowing and intelligent.
I think it's because most of those people aren't cunning enough to try the same scam, or clever enough to realize it's being pulled on them
Did he even graduate?
Did he even go? Iirc he is an autodidact.
Nope iirc.
Auto what? He doesn’t seem to know much at all lol
Achtually, Autodidact means he is the type of guy who when he talks to others automatically assumes he is the teacher and they are the student and goes into teaching mode. You prob didn't know this, but they often talk a bit down to people. In this lecture you will learn ...
Hahahah
Eroticist.
No
Yud didn't even graduate *grade school.*
Yea fr, if people don’t blame all their problems on the government and become disillusioned by everyone’s negating opinions of eachother, then how are we gonna reach a necessarily traumatic mental space that will further our evolution? Before we can have stable acceptance of human structures, we need adamant nihilism towards human structures… and I would say we’re about there!
He was never in college.

Ah I just stumbled on dath ilan after reading this
Apparently reading fiction can give you “policy experience”! I have a feeling it massively increases IQ as well.

What What is What is even happening
Whenever someone in your life asks you half-jokingly asks "how can I become smart like you?", you no longer need to answer "Have you ever read Harry Potter?" because Projectlawful.com does not have Harry Potter in it.
My entire life i have argued for the transformative, moving potential of storytelling to fundamentally shape our lives, our values, and who we are - championed the power of art to add meaning to existence, fought for storytelling in all its forms - and that one paragraph you quoted has caused me to renounce my most cherished, deeply held passionate beliefs.
the power of bayesian updating
I was confused about "that one paragraph you quoted", until I clicked the link and found out finfinfin's sick burn was actually a direct quote. I can't remember the last time I felt myself dying inside like this and I say this as a regular reader of /r/sneerclub and /r/buttcoin.
the highest form of the sneer is a simple quote
I feel your pain.
“Projectlawful spends the first dozens of hours of reading time in the nation of Cheliax, a DnD-esque satanist kingdom where most of the people worship the idea of being evil and exploiting others. Essentially, an amped-up version of DC, where everyone is a skilled liar and nobody cares about you or thinks much about you at all, no matter how much more insightful you are; but where everyone is always looking for an edge. Projectlawful describes, often in detail, exactly the kind of Goodharting that makes up the everyday bureaucratic life in DC.”
The "everyone is a skilled liar" bit is telling. It could never be that DC is full of *terrible* liars who simply *get away with it* because they are rich and powerful, or that lies are easy when your audience is eager to lap them up. No, it's all about casting Persuasion.
>no matter how much more insightful you are You sure about this one?
It's rest and rejuvenation and recharging, and also offers much of the same brain-augmentation as reading The Sequences.
But like....they do know that what they wrote is *fiction*, right? Like, they know that writing made-up characters on a piece of paper does not make them real?
Even knowing where it comes from, it's hard to believe it isn't satire.
> Projectlawful spends the first dozens of hours of reading time in the nation of Cheliax, a DnD-esque satanist kingdom where most of the people worship the idea of being evil and exploiting others. [...] projectlawful is the only thing I've yet encountered that can give anybody a fair chance to see if math is right for them wat I mean, I've read a lot of books that try to explain math or provoke excitement about math, and I feel like I should say something about dismissing or being ignorant of the entire genre, but really, all I've got is "wat".
Literally just a cult

Recreating philospher kings from first principles.

No, no, you see, if you had read 100+ pages of discord discussion about a collaborative roleplay fanfic you would know dath ilan doesn’t need philosopher kings because the median dath ilan person is already as wise and self-reflective and high-IQ as a philosopher king.

Is there anybody on here who can explain to me, an uninitiated, why these people are so obsessed with prediction markets

[deleted]
You also have to have a clear outcome that can be agreed upon to bet on. And a relatively equal number of people who are willing to bet on both sides of the outcome (hence why they have odds in sports betting). It's not really clear to me why the average layman should be interested in throwing money on "will Biden's economic plan improve the state of the USA", assuming you can even get people to agree on what would constitute improvement and how much any change can be attributed directly to a specific policy.
In practice markets (not just prediction markets) are also easy to manipulate if one side has an information advantage over the other. For some reason market advocates always seem to forget this inherent flaw of markets.
No, the manipulation is the point. If someone's shorting "will a terrorist attack the next Super Bowl?" futures, that's relevant information, you see. That tells us someone knows* something credible about the future. What a prediction market investor should do with that information, other than "try to make a buck off it", is an exercise for the implementers to figure out. * believes.
In practice part 2: prediction markets are too narrowly defined to be able to generalize always positive outcomes. Let's ask the prediction markets what 1930s Europe thought of the Jewish Problem and build policy based on that. 🙄 It's always garbage in garbage out with "rationalists."
In addition to what sneerfriend said, Robin Hanson really liked the idea, and he heavily influenced Eliezer and wrote the blog Overcoming bias which influenced the lesswrong blog.
\* became the LessWrong blog
Because calling it a "crystal ball" is embarrassing, while "math" is iamverysmart.
Many rationalists are gung-ho about capitalism despite being workers. If you think markets are generally fair and functional and produce "meritocracies", prediction markets seem like a clever way to extend that to governance. Rationalists like things that seem clever.
I was under the impression many rationalist workers believe they are temporarily embarrassed managers
It's just market fetishism. They genuinely believe that markets are the most efficient and correct mechanisms for determining value, truth and, now, the likelihood of future events.
Because they've never paid any attention to sports so have no idea that "prediction markets" have been going on for centuries without much transformative effect.
Given unbiased predictors, as the number of predictors increase, their aggregate predictions approach reality as their numbers approach infinity. You can see multiple issues with this.
it's why the economy is run from sports betting sites

Elron Yuddard

If you came up with this, it's great and thanks.
What fever dream did I just try to read? How can something make less sense after an explanation?
> nor are they good-enough coders to construct short regulations Blessed are the software engineers for yours is the future of mankind.
Dude is Roleplaying nonstop and thinks he is smart

“But their average, IQ in earth terms, is 143. Voters uniformly use the word literally only when they mean literally, and not when they mean figuratively”

can’t believe he read another book

“Eliezer Yudkowsky writes a Pathfinder fanfic that is essentially a bastardized Planescape with no curiosity about anything” is actually worse than “Brent Dill has opinions about the World of Darkness” and I am so upset

Can someone translate this into english please?

edit: so it’s a reference to his own work, again.

I can't believe he's [being such a Gregory Berrycone](https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/432/435/848.png).
https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/dath-ilan

Somehow, giving the “average IQ (in Earth terms)” to three significant digits makes the whole statement 22% more Time Cube.

If they almost uniformly understand supply and demand, what happens to the ones who don’t and how come they don’t affect voting patterns or governance?

Supply and demand sorts that out, don't worry.

Holy shit, this is the good stuff right here.