posted on November 14, 2022 02:51 PM by
u/textlossarcade
122
u/fusion_curious90 pointsat 1668438895.000000
I hope he does this for romantic relationships too, to be consistent.
Sorry honey, the market has spoken. I’m filing for pre-emptive
divorce for your likely infidelity.
unfortunately statistically people that he trusts turn out to be scammers like FTX
so by investing money into making him trust you, that makes you become less trustworthy
truly a paradox
Wait a second... surely you're not saying the guy known for tungstenmanning every belief system might just have his own biases that survive that entire process? That his blog posts were nothing more than performance?
Yeah, the fact that the King of The Race Realist Libertarians wrote some anti-Things he Thought Were Awesome FAQs was such a transparent exercise in plausible deniability that I'm surprised they tricked anyone.
Okay hear me out: Roko’s Basilisk is real, it is already torturing
all of us, and the torture is putting up with people like Scott
Alexander and Nathan Young.
What kind of insane gambling addict is willing to put money on “this
random dude Scott Alexander is friends with is/isn’t trustworthy”?
Heck, even in the case of public figures. Is anyone really
willing to put money on the line for the case of whether e.g. Hugh
Jackman is going to commit fraud? And how are we actually defining
fraud, anyway? Does it require a criminal conviction or is, say,
cheating on your partner enough?
Well, [this](https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-be-found-to#fZcDA1goloKOsldcEtt2) is just delightful. I love how in a couple comments they find an obvious flaw with prediction markets (aka fraud), agree that it's actually the best way to use prediction markets, and yet somehow the thought of "maybe prediction markets aren't actually useful" doesn't seem to cross anyone's mind.
Huh, it doesn't seem as if Scott Alexander has added that list of everyone he's ever trusted or considered trusting yet.
He *can't* be dumb enough to actually do this, right? I literally figured out the fatal flaw in that idea before I finished reading that paragraph of his; how the Hell couldn't he?
Step 1: publicly place a large bet on your trustworthiness through 2023
Step 2: through a sock puppet place a smaller bet on your commiting fraud in 2024
Step 3: allow the first bet to shift odds against the second
Step 4: on Jan 1 2024 after collecting your modest reward, commit fraud. Reap rewards of fraud. Then reap rewards from betting on fraud while presumed honest.
I hope he does this for romantic relationships too, to be consistent. Sorry honey, the market has spoken. I’m filing for pre-emptive divorce for your likely infidelity.
I love how he hasn’t wondered if he can trust the guy who runs a prediction markets site.
Let’s run a prediction market on Scott Alexander’s bad takes
How can the guy who wrote an anti-libertarian FAQ be this transparently stupid in a “markets will solve everything” sort of way?
Okay hear me out: Roko’s Basilisk is real, it is already torturing all of us, and the torture is putting up with people like Scott Alexander and Nathan Young.
What kind of insane gambling addict is willing to put money on “this random dude Scott Alexander is friends with is/isn’t trustworthy”?
Heck, even in the case of public figures. Is anyone really willing to put money on the line for the case of whether e.g. Hugh Jackman is going to commit fraud? And how are we actually defining fraud, anyway? Does it require a criminal conviction or is, say, cheating on your partner enough?
Am I listed?
Does anyone have a link to those prediction markets he mentions? Because I really want to see where they stand.
Does he include himself on the list? What if the markets predict he can’t trust himself?
dang, i had my chips on “name is something resembling fraud because of nominative determinism” for the scooter cope
It’s almost like trust is an important component to human interaction or something
Logistical problem number 2: when exactly does the “Dave is trustworthy” bet pay out?
I wonder how much money he had put into FTT tokens.
UM
Link?