It speaks volumes of how dumb this guy is that he started with 5
billion in assets with no controls on them whatsoever and he’s ending up
getting arrested rather than living in a mansion in a non-extradition
country with 00 million in a sack. The saying is “take the money and
run”, not “lose all the money and get arrested”, dumbfuck!
Baby's first international fraud. Still ironing out the kinks. Plus the Bahamas is cosy, and have you ever tried to move around Christmas?
For real though it makes me wonder about the guy, maybe he truly is in it for the long haul with EA, which for our purposes would be kinda great since the only thing worse for their optics than being pumped and dumped would be if the guy who was their most successful and notorious proponent tried to keep associating with them from behind bars.
Honestly it's up in the air for me, if he was dumb enough to do X he is dumb enough to do Y, but the many dumb things he has done are ostensibly at odds and it makes figuring his motivations out quite a challenge.
> Honestly it's up in the air for me, if he was dumb enough to do X he is dumb enough to do Y, but the many dumb things he has done are ostensibly at odds and it makes figuring his motivations out quite a challenge.
Doing dumb stuff without a plan means you end up doing contradictory dumb stuff.
And the great thing about running a yearly prediction thing is that
you don’t have to go back to your old predictions where you say (random
asspulled example) that some president of a failing democracy with lower
life standards was incorrectly being called a white nationalist when it
turns out he now invites white nationalists/supremacists and other
anti-semites to his resort.
(your superprediction score can also be greatly increased by
including a few super crazy and very unlikely predictions. ‘This
president will not start a new holocaust [95% sure]’).
E: and yes dear reader, this post actually isnt about sbf at all.
My favourite sneerclub posts are posts that are superficially about someone I dislike but actually turn out to be about Scott, who I despise.
The whole FTX thing really puts a dampener on his whole superprediction thing this year.
P.S. I swear I'm not following you.
Michael Grimes: I think Sam has it yes…. He’s into
you. We can push Sam to next week but I do believe you will like him.
Ultra genius and doer builder like your
formula. Built FTX from scratch after MIT physics. Second to Bloomberg
in donations to Biden campaign.
All SBF needs to do is merely imply a far right sentiment - an
antisemitic canard of the ZOG sort would probably go furthest for the
chuds following along - and then he’ll avail himself of full strength of
the latest reactionary convulsion. Hell, I’m sure there is a whole
twitter sphere doing the work for him, with his approval or not.
At least going by the sentiments on Hacker News there's very little sympathy for him for people who identify as right-libertarian.
It could be because his heritage (I interpret his surnames as Jewish and I believe others do too) and it could be that he's not even a honorable thief. I.e. he did not defraud the government but ordinary punters.
Ross Ulbrich (the Silk Road frontman) consistently gets more positive coverage, with commenters implying he was railroaded by the Man. Ofc he's an all-American Eagle Scout.
Cryptobros in general are probably afraid this means that a *lot* of stuff is going to come out into the light, and SBF's perceived incompetence leading to that means most of them have cut ties publicly.
Guys, you don’t understand. He’s like Jesus. His tale should for tell
many greater capitalist frauds. Remember, legit but scammy banks had
their hands in this jar.
He’d obviously have a better incentive to make good predictions if he participated in a predictions market.
It speaks volumes of how dumb this guy is that he started with 5 billion in assets with no controls on them whatsoever and he’s ending up getting arrested rather than living in a mansion in a non-extradition country with 00 million in a sack. The saying is “take the money and run”, not “lose all the money and get arrested”, dumbfuck!
Aww and he almost made it to the end of the year which would have meant he wasn’t arrested so his predictor % would have moved up. All serious rationalists want to be superpredictors..
And the great thing about running a yearly prediction thing is that you don’t have to go back to your old predictions where you say (random asspulled example) that some president of a failing democracy with lower life standards was incorrectly being called a white nationalist when it turns out he now invites white nationalists/supremacists and other anti-semites to his resort.
(your superprediction score can also be greatly increased by including a few super crazy and very unlikely predictions. ‘This president will not start a new holocaust [95% sure]’).
E: and yes dear reader, this post actually isnt about sbf at all.
April 2022> Elon asks Grimes about SBF (pdf).
All SBF needs to do is merely imply a far right sentiment - an antisemitic canard of the ZOG sort would probably go furthest for the chuds following along - and then he’ll avail himself of full strength of the latest reactionary convulsion. Hell, I’m sure there is a whole twitter sphere doing the work for him, with his approval or not.
What are you gonna do, stab me?
– Quote from man stabbed.
Look, somebody was gonna do it, I just did it first.
the tweet
Wonder how much Robin Hanson had staked on this and how much he lost
It is genuinely hilarious how the “rationalist”, effective altruist hedge fund manager is demonstrating clearly irrational, self destructive behavior.
I do not expect the rationalists to learn anything from this.
Guys, you don’t understand. He’s like Jesus. His tale should for tell many greater capitalist frauds. Remember, legit but scammy banks had their hands in this jar.
That’s nothing Scott Alexander essentially failed to predict the Trump coup like 6 months *after* it happened.
If he took part in a predictions market, he would unquestionably have more motivation to make accurate predictions.
Participating in a predictions market would, undoubtedly, provide him a stronger motivation to make accurate predictions.