Identical wording placing limits on the export of quantum computers has appeared in regulations across the globe. There doesn't seem to be any scientific reason for the controls, and all can be traced to secret international discussions
  • @parentesis@lemmy.worldEnglish
    91•9 months ago

    There is a race to crack the most common encryption algorithms. The official estimation is that they are 30 years away from it (reduced from the original 100 years they provided only 5 years ago), so their progress is faster that they expected and this tech is now considered a weapon.

    The country that gets there first will have a very valuable window of opportunity… It’s a race.

    • @variaatio@sopuli.xyzEnglish
      36•9 months ago

      30 years away from it (reduced from the original 100 years they provided only 5 years ago)

      More like estimates on this are completely unreliable. As in that 100 years could have as well been 1000 years. It was pretty much “until an unpredictable technological paradigm shift happens”. “100 years in future” is “when we have warp drives and star gates” of estimates. Pretty “when we have advanced to next level of advancement and technology, whenever it happens. 100 years should be good minimum of this not being taken as an actual year number estimate”.

      30 years is “we see maybe a potential path to this via hypothetical developments of technology in horizon”. It’s the classical “Fusion is always 30 years away”. Until one time it isn’t, but that 30 year loop can go on indefinitely, if the hypothetical don’t turn to reality. Since you know we thought “maybe that will work, once we put out mind in to it”. Oh it didn’t, on to chasing next path.

      I only know of one project, that has 100 year estimate, that is real. That is the Onkalo deep repository of spent fuel in Finland. It has estimate of spending 100 years being filled and is to be sealed in 2120’s and that is an actual date. Since all the tech is known, the sealing process is known, it just happens to take a century to fill the repository bit by bit. Finland is kinda stable country and radiation hazard such long term, that whatever government is to be there in 2120’s, they will most likely seal the repository.

      Unless “we invent warp drives” happens before that and some new process of actually efficiently and very safely getting rid of the waste is found in some process. (and no that doesn’t include current recycling methods. Since those aren’t that good to get rid of this large amount and with small enough risk of side harms. Surprise, this was studied by Finland as alternative and it was simply decided “recycling is not good enough, simple enough, efficient enough and safe enough yet. Bury it in bedrock tomb”).

    • @Takumidesh@lemmy.worldEnglish
      19•9 months ago

      Governments are also hoovering up encrypted files and storing them for later so when the time comes, they can go and decrypt everything.

      Gov seized your hard drive and you feel safe knowing it’s encrypted, better hope the forgot where they put it in 15 years.

      • @repungnant_canary@lemmy.worldEnglish
        5•9 months ago

        Drives are usually encrypted with symmetric ciphers (usually AES) and these are reasonably secure against quantum attacks with a key big enough.

        And with the vast majority of crimes you just need to wait until the statute of limitations, which in cryptography and quantum fields is quite short period.

        • AbsentBirdEnglish
          2•9 months ago

          With math you can try, but I bet that in the future they laugh at the half-assed schemes and algorithms amassed to enforce cryptographs in the past.

  • @Jarix@lemmy.worldEnglish
    26•9 months ago

    The article suggested there are quantum computers not available to the public. Easier to get restrictive laws passed for things that arent ready for public consumption, but they all know the pulic is going to get those things eventually and put into place barriers before people care about them.

    Its some long term thinking for it to be true, but it tracks they might be using something that behind closed doors, is leaps ahead of what most people know about

  • Maple EngineerEnglish
    11•9 months ago

    Infinite quantum instantiation would allow anyone with the technology to instantly find massive prime factors and decrypt anything.

    No more secrets.