| Party | Seats (Current) | Seats Change | Percentage (Current) | Percentage Change | Majority Probability | Minority Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | 189 | +29 | 43.1% | +10.5% | 74.7% | 18.4% |
| Conservative | 127 | +8 | 40.4% | +6.7% | 1.9% | 5% |
| Bloc | 20 | -12 | 4.6% | -3% | 0% | 0% |
| New Democrat | 5 | -20 | 6.1% | -11.7% | N/A | N/A |
Its interesting (and not particularly surprising) that as Poilievre is cornered into distancing himself from Dumpster, some of CPC’s most recent decline matches a small PPC uptick. I’d wager that’ll continue. LPC on the other hand is riding so high they pretty much had to come down some, and where they (marginally) go next is anyone’s guess, likely mostly up to whatever minor events arise during the campaign rather than anything already set in motion.
The last datapoint is interesting. All four of the top parties lost a little ground? Where did it go? Surely not all to the PPC, and the Greens don’t look like they gained that much.
The rise of independents looks significant too. Maybe it’s down to some riding with CPC candidates getting snubbed and then pulling the local support they had.
Minority Probability
We shouldn’t normalise ‘most seats = minority government’. They can do their fucking jobs and form a government that represents 60% of the people instead of letting one form that represents 40%.
Coalition -> Electoral Reform -> Election #2
That would be the best outcome for the country.
It’s common to use “plurality” instead, probably for that reason. If the Conservatives win a plurality they probably aren’t going to form a coalition (or similar). I don’t think even the bloc would be interested this time around.
