• 0 Posts
  • 838 Comments
Joined 2 years ago
cake
Cake day: 9 December 2023

help-circle





  • Yeah and travel near the speed of light, profitable fusion power, etc. are all theoretically possible too, but there’s no indication they’ll be practical in the near future. I don’t object to the philosophical argument about the possibility, I’m saying thinking it’s a near-term problem is a vast overestimation of our capability.

    you can just observe the history of artificial intelligence and extrapolate

    You actually can’t just extrapolate data points and expect to predict the future without a really good mechanistic reason for why it’s okay to do that. You can find countless learning materials with funny examples of over-extrapolation if you care to search for them.

    In this case, we even have good reason to believe that the trend will not continue: with seventy years of research and straining the limits of our physical global production capacity, we have been able to replicate a miniscule fraction of human cognitive ability. With the current technological basis for AI, increases in cost and material requirements scale exponentially with increases in complexity. We have neither the resources in the entire world, nor the data, to replicate anything like human cognition with current architectures.

    Of course, some breakthrough new technology may someday get us there, but we don’t even know the theoretical basis for what it could be, and such profound changes take decades to go from academia to being practically applied.







  • Yes, you’re right. I did mention those. Denmark is not much higher though, Luxembourg is only an option for people in specific fields really, and all three are tiny compared to Germany whereas the US is an enormous labour market. If you adjust those neighbours for their population size compared to France, Poland, Netherlands, Czechia etc. then it’s still higher than the overwhelming majority though. Real wages in Austria are pretty good for academics but otherwise not great either. But yes.


  • The thing is that despite Germany’s slow economy they still have higher wages compared to all most of their neighbours and any of the large ones, and most of the EU or EEC. In the US salaries for professional jobs are often almost double what they are in Germany so it’s attractive from that point of view, while in Europe the only real option for that is Switzerland, maybe Luxembourg. They probably also already speak English quite well and the language barrier is higher in other EU countries.