• BuckFutter@timeyak.com
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    7 days ago

    What a weird sequence of sentences to describe that no one likes data centers

    people aren’t dropping their shorts…

    cracks are forming…

  • eicker@lemmy.worldOP
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    7 days ago

    Turns out a business plan consisting of »build a trillion dollars of server farms now, figure out who pays later« gets slightly less charming once the lenders ask for actual numbers. The AI industry wanted to disrupt every profession except the ancient art of checking whether the math works.

      • NekoKoneko@lemmy.world
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        7 days ago

        Considering how tech CEOs are acting, with their bunkers, bodyguards, remote islands and rockets, I’m not sure they planned to come back after leaving with all our money.

    • Xaphanos@lemmy.world
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      7 days ago

      As someone on the inside, I can assure you that the buyers put down money up front for a specified product and delivery date. There is no speculation involved. They line up to give us money. Unless Microsoft et al. goes bankrupt, we keep building.

      • Snowclone@lemmy.world
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        7 days ago

        It’s not an issue of prediction, or prophesy, it’s that all the available information right now looks like a classic bubble. could it find profitably? idk. is it profitable? No. is there billions or trillions in debt changing hands too fast for anyone to keep track of? yes. is someone selling somke? most likely these are the situations in which con artists thrive. probably not everyone is intending to sell smoke. but not all of this is going to work out, some may come out on top, but some will fall, and that will be a bubble.

        • Xaphanos@lemmy.world
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          7 days ago

          Going a step further, the builders that build with environmental and community concerns first are more likely to endure. My company does exactly that.

          • felixwhynot@lemmy.world
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            7 days ago

            FTA:

            Drawing on data from regulatory intelligence outfit RegLayer, the FT reports that 47 large data center projects have already fallen through this year. Analysts at the equity research firm Bernstein only believe that about 35 percent of planned facilities are feasible.

            Would you dispute these claims, based on your experience?

            • Xaphanos@lemmy.world
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              6 days ago

              Not at all. Most builders are clueless. They think that because they have money, they can solve any problems.

              Edit: Adding that site selection is HARD. Every developer with a spare farm plot wants in on the action. Most are completely inappropriate.

      • EmilieEasie@fedinsfw.app
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        7 days ago

        I hate AI too but nothing this person is saying rings untrue to me. Even the article admits that data centers continue to be built, albeit slower. I know we all want the bubble to pop, but that could still be a ways off.

        • Snowclone@lemmy.world
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          1 day ago

          It’s not a bubble because of guess work, it’s a bubble because AI companies are taking on absurd amounts of debt, are trading that debt very quickly between themselves, and none of them have been able to show a profit and they are cheating every number in their favor and it still isn’t showing any profitably. so it’s not if the bubble bursts, it’s more, will this bullshit keep going if they never find profitably. all their avenues are pretty garbage, tokens are replacing payroll as a cut target for business, and the productivity they provide is not meeting need, AI slop is unpopular, police and military are slowly realizing a language model isn’t a reliable detective/ director of operations, also voters are alarmed they are trying to let AI do literally one of the most dangerous jobs you could trust to what’s effectively a particularly verbose racist toddler

        • Xaphanos@lemmy.world
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          7 days ago

          If we are not going to have honest discussion, why participate? Lemmy should be better.

          • Davel23@fedia.io
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            7 days ago

            So a post making claims against all visible evidence with no proof for any of it is “honest discussion”?

            • Xaphanos@lemmy.world
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              7 days ago

              You ask “why believe me?” I ask " why take you seriously?" And we get nowhere.

              The popular opinion is framed in view of the worst offenders. That gets clicks. My daily experience shows me that:

              • one urinal in my building uses more water in a day than the datacenter does in a year.
              • our generators run at less than 65 dB at full tilt at a distance of 30 feet. They are only run during utility outages - and monthly tests for 10 minutes.
              • we build in corporate parks and remote sites with surplus power.
              • the power substation we paid for and built delivers 20 MW back to the community. We added capacity to the local area on our dime.

              However, others are not like us. Musk runs gas turbines for primary power. MS uses open- loop cooling. They get the headlines. We don’t. Our business is based on responsible behavior. But we get painted with the same brush.

              • Davel23@fedia.io
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                7 days ago

                Ok, even assuming all that is true (just saying it doesnt make it so) none of it has anything to do with the inherent unprofitability of AI. Anthropic alone is reporting an $80 billion loss for the year. Last I heard the industry as a whole needs to make a few trillion dollars just to break even. Regardless of how efficient or not your particular data center may be, it’s not going to fill that gap.

                • Xaphanos@lemmy.world
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                  7 days ago

                  Agreed. Oai, Anthro, etc don’t necessarily have paths forward. But a LOT of folks want their hands on the results. Perhaps real open sw will rise to put them under and no one will need to pay for the models. But they will have to pay for the hardware to run it. And that’s pricey. And we get paid up front.

    • Dave.@aussie.zone
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      7 days ago

      Especially not with Finns. They like their forest, about 3/4 of the population goes and disappears into the forest during summer holidays.

      And then, they are also quite strict on The Rules Being Followed To Maintain Polite Society, so a corporation both destroying forest and breaking The Rules, well, that’s not gonna end well.

      • Malica@lemmy.zip
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        7 days ago

        Do they also have those lovely cabins you can rent everywhere, like in Norway? You’d never see my ass (except for work) if I lived there.

    • RedGreenBlue@lemmy.zip
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      7 days ago

      Petteri Orpo, said attracting investment was a “top priority” and “the value of the data economy extends far beyond direct investment”.

      X doubt.

      They probably gave them deals on electricity too. The Fins are getting nothing in return. Wow.

      • GreenKnight23@lemmy.world
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        7 days ago

        doesn’t matter. there are laws that must be followed. they broke the law, openly, and someone found out and told people. now the politicians that sold the land have piss on their face and have to do something about it or risk being replaced.

  • Uriel238 [all pronouns]@lemmy.blahaj.zone
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    6 days ago

    That people were dropping their shorts i the first place is a bad sign.

    The ubiquity of NSAs signed by government officials shows the entrenched degree of corruption. The companies and officials alike should be charged with crimes.

    • RagingRobot@lemmy.world
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      6 days ago

      Not only that but they know people don’t want them and they not only allow it but then also give them tax breaks. So the data center owners aren’t even paying taxes to improve the community. All these assholes do is take

  • RonnyZittledong@lemmy.world
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    7 days ago

    One thing I noticed while voting in the mid terms is how being anti data center is fairly bi-partisan even for maga dick bags.

    • zaphod@lemmy.ca
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      7 days ago

      And yet Republican candidates and sitting legislators are pushing hard for them. They really don’t seem to be reading the room well.

      We’re seeing the same thing in Canada, too. The typical alignment between corporations and the right wing seems to not be serving them well this time around…

      • sbbq@lemmy.zip
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        7 days ago

        They’re reading the room just right, you just don’t get who’s in it. They’re doing what they’re told by their tech masters.

        • zaphod@lemmy.ca
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          7 days ago

          I get that but they also need to be elected unless their goal is to pad their pockets as quickly as possible, now, before they get kicked out of office (which, hey, for some, certainly possible).

          Personally, I suspect they’re so deep in their own bubbles, and so used to a mindless right wing base that will vote for them no matter what, that they don’t see what’s going on.

      • Obviouslywrong@lemmy.world
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        6 days ago

        The, we’re going to spend 10 trillion dollars on new data centers and they will use all the water and power messaging for stock pumping while people see costs increasing and rising water and power bills was a pretty direct and understandable message. Remarkably fast turnaround though ,it shows how most concepts are ossified while this was genuinely new and people were willing to change their minds on it.

  • lntl@lemmy.ml
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    5 days ago

    These companies are “too big to fail.” Just like last time, when the bottom drops out on these bad investments the debt will be socialized.

  • Tollana1234567@lemmy.today
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    6 days ago

    also the fact that the ai chips wont be operational until a few years later, by then the AI models are all outdated.

  • RedGreenBlue@lemmy.zip
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    7 days ago

    If you have an outlook or gmail, start migrating off those email services now, before microslop and google evaporate.

    It’s gonna happen fast when it happens.

    • Reality@feddit.org
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      6 days ago

      Google and Microsoft are profitable without ai. So I’d assume the bubble popping will not crash them

        • Reality@feddit.org
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          6 days ago

          They don’t pay that much tax to where I am from, so if the US wants to do so, have fun.

      • Scrollone@lemmy.zip
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        6 days ago

        Not crash them, but they’ll probably need to make Gmail/Outlook into a paid service in order to cover all the costs.

        Google Ads is slowly dying, because people just ask AI instead of searching and navigating websites, and that was Google’s biggest revenue.

        • Reality@feddit.org
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          6 days ago

          I don’t see how Google would willingly get rid of the goodwill and data of normal users like that. Most people don’t know about the sheer site of Googles ad revenue. Also, Google will be the player that shows ads in Google answers, so the moat for ads will become bigger instead of smaller in my mind. Do you have a source on Google ads dying? Last I heard was that it was very profitable for alphabet.

          • phutatorius@lemmy.zip
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            6 days ago

            I don’t see how Google would willingly get rid of the goodwill and data of normal users like that.

            They don’t give a monkey’s fruity fart about goodwill. They’re rent-seeking oligopolists. They’ll squeeze their users as hard as they think they can get away with.

            • Scrollone@lemmy.zip
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              6 days ago

              Exactly, they don’t care about users, they just care about money.

              Examples? See what they’re doing with Gemini. Even Pro (paying) users will be downgraded to Gemini Flash in less than one month.

        • Reality@feddit.org
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          5 days ago

          Quite possible, but my bet is that they will buy the winners, just like after dotcom

    • Poach@lemmy.world
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      7 days ago

      Eh, probably they will be labeled “too big to fail” and the US government will go into even more money printing to keep them afloat. Making inflation even worse than it is.

      • J92@lemmy.world
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        7 days ago

        I’m not knowledgeable enough to know what the ramifications of Alphabet’s collapse would bring about. I can only imagine good things, though I know Firefox is propped up by them.

        • anewfox@lemmy.zip
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          7 days ago

          well for one, how are you going to recover accounts using your gmail if gmail simply doesn’t exist anymore?

          answer: you don’t.

        • Matty_r@programming.dev
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          6 days ago

          It wouldn’t collapse per se. It would get sold to the next biggest bidder. You’d end up with the likes of Amazon, Microsoft or Musk or something.

      • phutatorius@lemmy.zip
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        6 days ago

        That money has to come from somewhere. Ultimately the debt service will hit their opex.

        • Obviouslywrong@lemmy.world
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          6 days ago

          There’s no scenario in which building data centers will make the company stop existing, they can just sell or rent what ai data centers they have and exit the business worst case.

      • Uriel238 [all pronouns]@lemmy.blahaj.zone
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        6 days ago

        The current regular servers proved capabilities that hyperscalers are selling at a drastic loss, most of which can be done with a build run on your PC.

        in order for hyperscale AI to break even, it has to make $6 trillion a year. The ambition was to replace most of the skilled workforce with something cheaper or more productive. (And that also means pushing most of society into ghettos and reservations.)

        The other interest was government projects, such as commanding drone armies and processing surveillance data.

        Six trillion is an awful lot, and its looking unlikely there’s that much business to go around.

    • prole@lemmy.blahaj.zone
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      6 days ago

      Meh, if it happens to large swathes of Gmail users, and I lose everything in that account, I’d be ok with it. Like who fucking cares, honestly?

      Not only would it give me a reason to leave all that bullshit behind forever, since I wasn’t the only one, I’d have a legitimate excuse if I actually lose anything irreplaceable.

      • WhyJiffie@sh.itjust.works
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        6 days ago

        Like who fucking cares, honestly?

        Anyone who has a little sense of self responsibility?

        even if you don’t care at all about any of your emails in your inbox, all the places you registered an account won’t care at all that you lost your email account. even if they cared, they have no way to verify you actually owned the account you claim to.

    • ragas@lemmy.ml
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      6 days ago

      Don’t worry, Google is still just investing barely more than what they have too much quarter over quarter.

  • SnarkoPolo@lemmy.world
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    5 days ago

    American taxpayers will foot the bill for the bailout. And AI will know if you’re unhappy about it.