What Krasnov doesn’t understand is that if the US doesn’t let Ukraine build Patriots, that won’t result in Russian air superiority over Kyiv and Trump Org deals with Moscow about Kiev real estate. It will result in Ukraine and Europe developing their own interceptors and cutting their dependence on ones the US can restrict or extract profits from.
It’ll take a few years to build a production line for Patriot missiles as well, so it the short term benefit was mostly political. Trump’s flip-flop however will result in long term political consequences and a loss of deterrence for US allies.
And the US giving Ukraine a license to make Patriots could have had the effect of diverting resources from the sovereign interceptor programme to the tried and tested one, ensuring US influence and licensing revenue for years to come, not to mention reducing the risk of competition in the export market (the Ukrainian-European venture that makes whatever replaces Patriot will have ready export markets for it, in Taiwan/Japan/the Philippines and the Persian Gulf to name two regions).
What Krasnov doesn’t understand is that if the US doesn’t let Ukraine build Patriots, that won’t result in Russian air superiority over Kyiv and Trump Org deals with Moscow about Kiev real estate. It will result in Ukraine and Europe developing their own interceptors and cutting their dependence on ones the US can restrict or extract profits from.
That’s already under development but it takes years to build such capability.
It’ll take a few years to build a production line for Patriot missiles as well, so it the short term benefit was mostly political. Trump’s flip-flop however will result in long term political consequences and a loss of deterrence for US allies.
And the US giving Ukraine a license to make Patriots could have had the effect of diverting resources from the sovereign interceptor programme to the tried and tested one, ensuring US influence and licensing revenue for years to come, not to mention reducing the risk of competition in the export market (the Ukrainian-European venture that makes whatever replaces Patriot will have ready export markets for it, in Taiwan/Japan/the Philippines and the Persian Gulf to name two regions).