
Highly doubtful they could hold anything here without destroying everything and killing civilians indiscriminately.
Which they got plenty of practice in most of their past conflicts.
But I am also in the opinion that while our military would be relatively easily defeated, they might not be able to manage the gorilla warfare that would follow.
Also, we can easily cross the border and go play on their turf, their population is not used to being in danger (except in schools).
They still, to this day, do everything they can to make the people of Cuba suffer for their decision to stop Usamerican exploitation of their land/labour/resources, decades ago.