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Cake day: July 1st, 2023

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  • Whether Jordan is correct or not (and I do get crank-vibes from him) is not really interesting from a meta-perspective. The interesting thing is that EAs can deploy astroturfers and they’re met with pitchforks and torches from the get-go. Everyone hates AI and datacenters, and Rationalist Explanations and Facts are not gonna change that in a hurry.






  • I take Zitron’s takes with a massive grain of salt, but I think the fundamental difference between him and rats is that for him, AI is just another technology. He’s looking at the figures, seeing the adoption, and not premising his arguments with the supposition that Anthropic’s Claude is literally gonna escape and kill us all.

    Piper says she’s fine with paying $100/month for Claude. OK, but how large is the total addressable market for that kind of monthly expenditure - especially in a world where costs are rising? I’ve seen people stating that because they personally spend $200 on streaming services, increasing that load by 50% monthly is no big deal for them. But streaming services are much more mainstream than AI agents, and crucially, adding another subscriber to them is basically zero-cost for the provider on the margin. Not so with AI! The more people use them, the more they cost for the provider!

    We’re seeing “pricing adjustments” from both Anthropic and Microsoft, which sure doesn’t align with the idea that they have a huge inference pricing margin cushion. Everything is gonna get more expensive - fuel, chips, employees (who are gonna be expected to be compensated for their own rising costs). Just based on what I’m reading in the news titls the analysis over in Ed’s favor.










  • There’s local democracy - in one book some activist reserved a big part of an orbital just to run cable cars back and forth. And I believe the decision to go war with the Idirans was subjected to a vote - part of the Culture split off when it didn’t go their way.

    But yeah, the Minds decide everything and Contact/SC is all about doing the “needful stuff” that every right-thinking Culture citizen would deplore.

    The Culture is imperialist in the previous US sense of “everyone wants to live our lifestyle” but not in the “invade planets and strip them” sense.

    I’m less interested in discussing the minutiae of the fictional Culture than exploring nerd’s reactions to it, honestly .


  • I figure part of the “scan” that a Contact ship does when it encounters a “lesser” planet is to basically slurp down all media, read all the books, and send drones down to do full-3d immersive recordings of basically everything going on.

    I guess some stuff you really need to train as a monk for 30 years to really grok, but if there’s an interest for that some Culture weirdo will volunteer and get sent down with a drone in the form of a crucifix or whatever, and incidentally become the next pope.

    incidentally I feel I’m seeing in this post and in the shit like Karp’s 22 points a growing sense of ennui and purposelessness that was also reported in Europe before WW1 . Everything is safe and soft and real manly virtues like killing are downplayed so what we need are big strong men throwing missiles.

    Banks wrote during the 70s/80s and just imagining a future that wasn’t a nuclear wasteland or the Empirium of Man was an act of opposition.