• arrow74@lemmy.zip
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      3 months ago

      My theory on how this will go.

      Iran will wait until the receive the money and other benefits from the deal. They will likely let some cargo ships through the new toll system and re-arm. Letting some oil pass eases the strain and decreases the odds other nations will get involved when they re-close the Strait.

      Israel during the time will keep attacking Lebanon. Iran once it’s ready, minimum one month, will launch several strikes on Israel citing Lebanon. It will then tell the US to drop support for Israel or it will void the agreement and close the Strait.

      Now here’s where it gets interesting. Trump may actually give Iran what it wants. They have fed his ego and convinced him this is a good deal and it will make him look good. The narcissist that he is will be pissed and much more likely to drop support for Israel for ruining his deal. Unless his handlers reign him in, then we get a full restart of the conflict shortly before midterms. Which will likely nudge things in favor of the democrat candidates.

      This is pure speculation in my part, but I actually feel pretty confident on this one

      • MrMakabar@slrpnk.net
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        3 months ago

        It will be interesting to see what Israel will do. This would be a defeat for them. Currently they have two options for a victory. One is to defeat Hezbollah to the point that the Lebanese government takes full control over the country. The other one is to finish the genocide in Gaza(aka kill everybody). To me especially that one sounds like it might happen. Israel needs to kill the peace deal and this would look bad for Iran, as they are seen as a sort of protector of Gaza.

        It also might just about keep Netanyahu in power, as taking Gaza would make him a hero for radical Zionists.

  • rozodru@piefed.world
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    3 months ago

    just waiting for some zionist/Isreal sympathizer to say that the US trying to end the war with Iran is “anti-semitic” or something. tired of that word, it’s lost all meaning.

    so the US is Israels bitch while the rest of us wait in line. I’m tired of it. if there’s one country that needs a smack in the mouth it’s Israel.

  • mlg@lemmy.world
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    3 months ago

    I already said it a month ago, but I’m pretty sure the main contention over the agreement has been getting Israel to play along.

    Trump can’t actually say that he’s on Netanyahu’s leash because that would mean his supposed authority is non-existent. Iran also knows that Israel will never agree to anything, so they naturally opted to skip straight to negotiating directly with the US and having them “pull the leash” on Israel.

    Regardless if it goes through or not, it ends in a fight between whether the US owns Israel or Israel owns the US.

    • immutable@lemmy.zip
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      3 months ago

      Classic art of the deal.

      A trump never pays, so it’s ok to agree to pay things yoy cant possibly deliver. You weren’t going to pay the things you could deliver, why let a little thing like “you dont control Israel’s army and their endless bloodlust” stop you from promising that they will do things.

  • Mulligrubs@lemmy.world
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    3 months ago

    I don’t think Israel will accommodate this, see “Greater Israel”.

    They want all of the land that God “gave” them, even though He’s not powerful enough to deliver it Himself for some reason.

    • Pappabosley@lemmy.world
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      3 months ago

      God works in mysterious ways, mostly it seems by delivering ammunition and enticing soldiers to shoot children for sport

    • cmbabul@slrpnk.net
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      3 months ago

      Well James considering the straight was going to stay closed until at least 30 days after negations conclude, and the agreement is literally just an agreement to have negotiations and what it will take to open the straight which will not even have a chance to be signed until Friday, I’m going to say no the Strait of Hormuz is not open

  • Perky@fedia.io
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    3 months ago

    This is why the administration is happy to “promise” $300 billion and other concessions. They know that Israel will never allow the war to end, so they’ll never have to pay any price tag that’s contingent on the war ending.

  • TankovayaDiviziya@lemmy.world
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    3 months ago

    I can’t believe I am siding with theocrats but i agree with Iran.

    Now that I think about it, this war is between theocrats and their pedophile buddy versus another theocrats!

    • stylusmobilus@aussie.zone
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      3 months ago

      Yeah, it’s theocrats either side.

      It looks to me as if Israel is beating up whoever they want while Trump is pumping oil prices to profit.