I don’t see how they’re going to meet their revenue projections when open models are largely turning LLMs into a free commodity. So far in 2026, we’ve gone from local LLMs being a toy to Qwen 3.8 27B giving the latest Sonnet 5 a run for its money. The OpenCode desktop app is also almost at parity with the Claude desktop app as well and I’ve heard Pi is pretty good too.
Now we are seeing techniques like a “phrase book” evolving to allowing a large portion of a huge model to reside on a SSD instead of in RAM / VRAM so that Opus-class models can run on a gaming PC. For example, this video is nuts: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IH8XmxiwliQ
OpenAI and Anthropic know they’re cooked, so that’s why they’re talking all this nonsense trying to keep the shell game going a while longer. 🍿
This generation of AI architecture is cooked. The bet now is that the next generation “AGI” resulting from all the new datacenters will repay the trillions invested.
I’m so glad an at home competitive solution to the AI fuckery is here now. I hope this fast forwards the bubble bursting and pc prices go back down when an iPhone or Android phone can run an equally good AI on the device itself.
PC prices will be heated up by demand for hardware to run local models. There will always be more advanced models requiring more advanced hardware, or at least for a good while. First it’ll need better hardware to perfect the text generation, then to improve image generation, then to improve video generation, then to make flawless code in large projects like games, etc. etc.
At the very least, GPUs and RAM will probably stay overly expensive for a while.
Maybe not a mobile device, but running decent local models is definitely within reach for the average consumer today by simply adding a GPU with lots of VRAM to their existing PC.
I mean yes but those gpus are not necessarily within reach of the average consumer anymore. Even if you got one for a grand which is a lot of money you would have cooling and enclosure costs, possibly additional hardware.
“So, how do you make your money?” “I lie”.
They can’t go public.
I bet they end up merging or being bought long before they’re actually ready to go public.
They can’t go public.
I think that rising interest rates (e.g. by the ECB) because of more expensive oil and empty national reserves wouldn’t make that easier.
The tech CEO’s are playing into fears of AI, because their development didn’t meet their hype.
There is no doubt, they don’t give a fuck and we all should know it. They believe in nothing except self advancement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vQaVIoEjOM
Don’t believe the Hype. Yeeeeaah boooyy.
It’s got nothing to do with safety, he doesn’t have the numbers to go public and is trying to mask that.
My $0.02 is that Dario genuinely believes* this, Sam doesn’t, but it’s convenient for OpenAI to hitch its wagon to Anthropic’s call for regulation because their financials are a mess.
- just because his belief is genuine doesn’t mean it’s reasonable. I find the whole thing kind of laughable actually.
There’s no way Dario really believes this. He knows “AI safety” is the only way to keep the hype train going; otherwise the bubble pops immediately.
What kind of numbers do they need?
https://www.wheresyoured.at/ He’s laid out what they need in painstaking detail.
Revenue growth that suggests a path to profitability would be a start.
For the evaluation OpenAI and its investors would target, they would need pretty great ones. But another thing is that they’d also need to look good relative to anthropic, who is also looking at an IPO.
Not sure if their plan for it has changed,but OpenAI would always be measured against them. And my understanding is that anthropic is said to have better financials while having raised less investment money so far.
There is only so much liquidity for IPOs and SpaceX already vacuumed up a lot. If both openai and and anthropic would IPO as an option for investors to buy into a pure play, I assume everyone would compare the two and go for the perceived winner (or want a good discount for the second best)
Big, I think.
More likely its because they need more time to cook their books.
I think no one wants to hold the bag.
If they cook any longer, it’s going to look worse than the venison bones I forgot I was roasting for stock that one time.
On the plus side, the whole kitchen enjoyed playing predator with the burnt to fuck spine.
Don’t worry, it’s DEFINITELY not because they would need to disclose their finances to investors. Just keep pouring money in and everything will turn out fine!
Anyone who has gone through an IPO knows how fucking rigorous all of the audits and reporting are for investors. Guaranteed 1000% that they failed the audit, or worse they didn’t even get to the audit stage, or as you said their finances they know are shit. It is zero surprise to me that they’re waiting.
Where was this rigorous audit for SpaceX?
No one will ever go to prison, so the scam works. Extract as much money as they can while destroying the world.
The guy goes fuzzball on telling everyday AI is going to kill us all, then “well I can’t IPO, people are afraid”?
Well, guess what my little boy, what did you expect?
Sam, we don’t believe you, you make no sense at all, you liar piece of shit.
He has a simple, but actually complicated task: boost AI hype, but reduce the competition, ESPECIALLY on the side of open source Chinese models.
That’s the sole reason for “AI is cool, but dangerous, and we must control it” and “We must break free from China” rhetoric. He is tasked to make AI grow as a proprietary technology, so that there’s any chance at all to recoup the immense investment that was made. If open, local LLMs maintain their position, OpenAI cannot leverage its own position to demand exorbitant prices for access to ChatGPT - and that is the key condition to recoup all of the investments that were made.
Just another scam, move along
That company is fucked.
Indeed. Next year several billion dollar loans of theirs comes due, with more and larger ones the following year and so on.
Hahaha, AI hype has already reached and past its peak, the best time to do an ipo for them is today, second best time would be tomorrow.
Sure it might be here to stay, but the gold rush FOMO phase is over.
Because they’re generating money with zero expectation of ever making any. Getting more customers only costs them more…
That and they haven’t met their hype. These LLMs can’t overcome a lot of problems like hallucinations on their own, due to the way it works. They promised exponential improvement, and haven’t delivered.
They don’t give a fuck about the dangers of AI obviously anyone that believes that I have an exciting investment opportunity for.
I hope they go right under a rock and stay there.
thiel will be very disappointed his apostate.
Hilarious… I guess this pushes back the inevitable bubble collapse (probably until just after they do go public)
They will never go public. Their finances will be in an even poorer state next year, because that is when the first of their many billion dollar loans are coming due.
I am willing to bet the loans get differed, they are later forced to IPO and will pay debts with that whilst Altmam probably noshes off the great orange turd in hopes he can disappear somewhere with a truck load of cash.
Good news for retail investors.
And tons of retirement funds, not just in the US. Before I took manual control of mine, about 30% was US stock indexes.
