It’s great watching this in real time.
More and more strikes are hitting air defence targets making it harder to defend against meaning more strikes succeeding.
yup. there’s no quick replacements coming for those BUKs, and they’re EXPENSIVE as fuuuuck. And russia may not even possess the tech required to replace them at this point.
And russia may not even possess the tech required to replace them at this point.
Even more likely after they blew up Russia’s 2nd largest microchip facility last week or whenever it was.
I’ve been saying this for months with my circle of buddies.
The slow, methodical SEAD is like drilling holes in a dam. Enough holes happen then catastrophic failure happens.
The drone war on the ground has changed ground combat, but air dominance for either side would completely change the balance of the fight. Great job Ukraine, slow and steady seems to be winning the race here.
I like your dam analogy, I think its one of the better ones ive seen on this topic.
A friend and I were talking about it and he likened it to a controlled demolition as well. You don’t need to vaporize a building to make it collapse, you just need to hit the correct structures for it to collapse on it’s own. Both work, but holes in a dam is more gradual than a controlled demolition in my mind.
What Ukraine has been doing for years now is extremely measured and smart warfare. They’ve been holding where they can, ceding ground where they can’t, and they have been methodically taking out logistics, AAA, and radars. These irreplaceable things eventually will create gaps in coverage, which can lead to increased air dominance in those localized areas. That air dominance will translate into gains on the ground, as drones can’t do shit to fighter jets yet.
It’s costly warfare in terms of the manpower Ukraine has lost, but it’s really smart fighting.
Also losing the air war becomes a very slippery slope very quickly, the basic strategic mechanisms at play heavily favor the winner winning even harder the more they win.
A lone air defense system is just a target, it only becomes a counter when it is integrated in a network of supporting air defenses and other elements.
Once the sky is full of Ukrainian drones hunting down anything that dares to turn on a radar or present itself as an obstacle to Ukraine’s relentless long range drone strikes, from directions Russia cannot even begin to predict where from… not only has Russia fallen behind in a crucial element of the fight, they have been kicked out of the air war and had the door locked behind them so they can’t get back in.
Another point, the more that drones are used to take out air defenses, the closer Ukrainian aviation can get to lob glide bombs on Russian positions, which also has a massive non-linear effect upon the frontline calculus.
My bet is that as the russians are doing absolutely everything to pretend all is a o kay (remember the kremlin narrative is that they ate “unstoppable”), the first sensed weakness is actually the start of the downfall. Recently Ukraine explodes an air defense radar a day it seems, that is just not sustainable at all, and Ukraine doesn’t seem to be slowing down, more going faster and faster.
Good luck Ukraine, slava Ukraine!!
Fuck Russia.
Ukraine ❤️ ❤️
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
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There are still Ukrainian citizens living on most of the occupied territories, including Crimea. Burning down the whole place, unfortunately, isn’t an option as they’re effectively hiding behind hostages.
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There are many, many “ethnically Russian” people in crimea whos families have lived there since long before the soviet union. Thats entirely different from the “oh look how cheap these recently unoccupied houses are!” people
Those are either Ukrainian, Crimean Tatars or descendants of russian imperial colonialists. So no, I don’t mean those people, I mean actual Ukrainians and Tatars being held hostage
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Slight problem with your plan, it’s rather difficult to differentiate a persons nationality or their allegiance from a drone.
Also, you know, it being a crime against humanity.
Yes there is that pesky little thing.
They will leave on their own soon as Ukraine starts threatening their land.
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Delulu take tbh
Does it matter if the Russians moved there before or after Russia captured Crimea from Ukraine?
Yes and don’t sanitize your language. Russia stole the land through violent invasion and didnt even have the balls to do it openly and had to send in their unmarked mercenaries. Prior to Russian invasion, Russians who moved to Crimea immigrated and became Ukrainian. After Russia invaded, illegal Russian colonists (re: settlers) moved in and stole Ukrainian land.
This is all going to be over within six months one way or another. The dynamics of this might factor in somewhere along the line but there is a 0% chance that we get to a year from now in the same state of affairs that exist today.
I thought the same last year, and the year before and the year before…
And before that, I didn’t think Russia would be willing and or dumb enough to invade.
Why would you think that? Ukraine is doing okay now but they have a lot of ground to win. Russia has made it clear they don’t care about the cost to then and so they will grind on so long as they have any land, and maybe longer
Yeah but everything is in the toilet for russia, and they can’t claim anything else, so I’d just dismiss what the kremlin says.
excellent news.
