This analysis came out earlier this month, and it’s the mother of all wake-up calls. Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” would appropriate $200 billion to ICE, which the Cato Institute has called an “unimaginable sum.” Some relevant quotes:

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the bill will direct an astounding $168 billion of the budget to immigration and border law enforcement, and there is even more for agencies that indirectly support immigration law enforcement.

The $168 billion is, by itself, an unimaginable sum. Without H.R. 1, Congress had already appropriated twice as much money to America’s border police as all other federal law enforcement combined. In FY 2025, immigration and border enforcement accounted for at least two-thirds of all federal law enforcement.

In FY 2025—again, before H.R. 1—Congress allocated nearly $34 billion to immigration and border enforcement agencies. That’s 36 times more than what is provided for tax and financial crimes enforcement (IRS-Treasury), 21 times more than funding for firearms enforcement (ATF), 13 times more than drug enforcement (DEA), and 8 times more than the FBI budget to enforce effectively everything else. The level of border police spending is already so extreme that it has swamped nearly all other criminal law enforcement priorities for the federal government.

The House plans to distort this wildly out-of-whack law enforcement system beyond recognition. H.R. 1 appropriates $168 billion to agencies whose primary purpose is immigration enforcement. It adds $1.2 billion to all other law enforcement for the Secret Service. This sum comes on top of the $33 billion, meaning that if this bill passes, about $200 billion will be made available for immigration enforcement starting in FY 2025.

$200 billion dollars is equivalent to 1/5th of our entire military budget ($960 billion). It’s more than Russia’s entire military spending in 2024 ($149 billion). To say that Trump would be creating a 7th branch of the military operating on US soil would be neither an overstatement nor a conspiracy theory.

For context, this article was published by the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank originally founded by Charles Koch (among others). The fact that these guys are ringing the alarm bell should be a warning unto itself. You can read the full text of the bill (H.R. 1) here.

https://archive.ph/pfuB6

    • Snot Flickerman@lemmy.blahaj.zone
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      5 months ago

      If ICE was a military, it would be the third most funded military in the world with this budget. Right behind US and China and about $50 billion more than Russia.

      We are looking at concentration camps for real.

      • MisterFrog@lemmy.world
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        5 months ago

        I feel like what the rest of the world doesn’t understand (I am from the "rest of the world), is that the USA is VASTLY more powerful than the Nazis ever were. Barely any country is sounding the alarm seriously. Just “oh we’re concerned about what’s happening”.

        We are truly fucked.

        And we’re under the US’ thumb (Australia).

        At least we’re majority white… maybe that’ll keep us safe, temporarily.

        I hate this timeline, so very much.

        • 1SimpleTailor@startrek.website
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          5 months ago

          I think (and hope) that one key difference here is that the US is much more divided politically and culturally then Nazi Germany was. At least right now, there is no way the US declares a war of aggression against a former Ally and doesn’t fall into Civil War. It will take a hell of a lot of internal suppression for that to change, the act of which will likely ignite the Civil War itself.

          My hope is that the next few years will be less “What if the Nazi’s controlled the most powerful nation in history?” and more “What if Francisco Franco controlled the most powerful nation is history?”

          Europe and China likely have time to prepare, and they really fucking need to. If they’re smart they’re already covertly looking into ways to arm and fund internal opposition in America.

          • Taldan@lemmy.world
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            5 months ago

            the US is much more divided politically and culturally then Nazi Germany

            Is it? Hitler couldn’t even win an election before his rise to power. He siezed power after being appointed to a position of power. Trump won the popular vote, if we can believe election results

            I think Nazi Germany looked more unified than it was because we focus of the WW2 years, well after Hitler had consolidated power

          • MisterFrog@lemmy.world
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            5 months ago

            This take makes a lot of sense, fair enough.

            I guess I’m just expecting the worse because of all the norms they’re breaking. Maybe not a war, but I would not be surprised if the CIA leans on us a little more heavily than they already have (allegedly, but let’s be honest, very likely).

          • Darkassassin07@lemmy.ca
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            At least right now, there is no way the US declares a war of aggression against a former Ally and doesn’t fall into Civil War. It will take a hell of a lot of internal suppression for that to change

            A $200 billion army explicitly created to suppress US citizens ought to fix that.

    • Serinus@lemmy.world
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      5 months ago

      What does this have to do with the Democrats? Or did you just want to shoehorn them in?

      • Saleh@feddit.org
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        They helped pass budget bills for Trump before.

        They attack politicians who want to do something tangible about Fascism like Mamdani and Sanders, instead of fighting fascism.

      • ayyy@sh.itjust.works
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        They could filibuster the bill and shut down the government, which would be an objectively better outcome than allowing the gestapo to sweep through the nation. They won’t though.

        • Frezik@lemmy.blahaj.zone
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          It is not possible to filibusterer this. Republicans are specifically using techniques to avoid having to deal with the filibuster under Senate rules. The whole thing is DOA if they do.

    • Zaktor@sopuli.xyz
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      Cato probably agrees with that statement, but at least they have some actual principles about small government rather than small government for good things and big government for bad things.

  • It'sbetterwithbutter@lemmus.org
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    5 months ago

    Well done America, you had a pretty decent country with some major issues (healthcare, cost of living) but you’ve all decided you need a bit more racism and hate in your lives. Congratulations on your incoming authoritarianism.

    • Sigilos@ttrpg.network
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      The issue some of us take with that is no, we did not all decide we needed more racism and hate. In fact, more and more evidence is being found that shows the entire thing was rigged, and the true majority decision was not acknowledged by the folks who had mostly been behind the scenes before.

      • It'sbetterwithbutter@lemmus.org
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        America has been sliding further and futher away from being a democracy for decades, eroding rights and corporate lobbys have put business over people, he was elected TWICE even if there was voter rigging. The democratic party is dead and your political system is broken. The Heritage foundation has long been planning this and none of this was a secret. While YOU may note have voted for this, this is what the face of America is to us foreigners,

      • ILikeBoobies@lemmy.ca
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        Trump said it was rigged when he won (Elon fixed the machines in Penn)

        What violence against him have you seen from these presumed non-supporters?

        • FreshParsnip@lemmy.ca
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          Why was nothing done about it? I don’t understand how that statement didn’t immediately invalidate his win

          • ILikeBoobies@lemmy.ca
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            When Gore was found to have won they just said it would be unfair to change the result afterwards

      • It'sbetterwithbutter@lemmus.org
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        5 months ago

        Unfortunately that doesn’t seem to make a difference, even winning a popular vote isn’t enough, the system is broken. Your voices are drowned out by corporate and political lobbies, as we just saw in the big beautiful bill.

    • gandalf_der_12te@discuss.tchncs.de
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      i can literally imagine an american sitting at the kitchen table and thinking “hmm, what do we need in our lives? more spice

      well, here’s the bill.

    • msprout@lemmy.world
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      Naw. That’s just what they’re saying to appease the slavering, gnashing teeth of American conservatives. Virtually all of that money is just going into a black hole, and right into the offshore bank accounts of Trump’s cronies.

      It’s what Russia did — why would Trump run the playbook any differently?

      • NoneOfUrBusiness@fedia.ioBanned
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        Because Putin was popular enough to build status quo fascism. Trump doesn’t have such luxury, so he needs to get his act in order before domestic opposition finally wakes up. Federal forces, and specifically ICE, are woefully underprepared for enforcing authoritarian rule in a country as big as America, even setting aside the possibility of a civil war.

  • bradinutah@thelemmy.club
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    In fascism, you don’t need disabled, Sick, old, or excessively poor people. No need for Medicare or Medicare when they can be shipped off to the concentration camps and disappeared. One big beautiful final solution.

    • Dogiedog64@lemmy.world
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      And eventually, nobody will get sick or old anymore! Miraculously, they’ll just stop appearing entirely!

      Because we’ll all be dead.

  • plyth@feddit.org
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    7th branch of the military operating on US soil

    Seventh National Army

    It’s just a pun. Nothing to worry about.

  • Rooskie91@discuss.online
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    My prediction: This is how America finally gets highspeed trains, but they’ll only be used to deport people faster.

    • madlian@lemmy.cafeBanned
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      Nah, they’ll just burn them alive when they have enough control that no one can fight back. Unless they can work… then maybe they’ll allow them to work to death as a favor.

    • A_norny_mousse@feddit.org
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      Imagine the USA being the new North Korea, Donald Jr. eventually following his father to the throne. Ostracized by the world. Global hacker scams and their own version of Juche. The parallels are astounding, esp. if you make a few simple deductions into the near future: distribution of wealth, collapsed economy while claiming it’s booming…

    • D_C@sh.itjust.works
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      You heard it wrong. You thought they said “here’s responsible spending” however they actually said “irresponsible spending”