If I had to make a guess, I say it probably will. The convenience of AI is probably here to stay, but the craze of replacing everything with AI will go out the door.
AI will become exactly what it should have been in the first place: an assistant. Not your friend, not your doctor, not your therapist, not a replacement for artists/authors/programmers, and not inside every piece of tech post 2025. It has a place. That place is over-embellished right now, not to mention unsustainable.
It will definitely burst, and might take out some fairly large companies with it. Potentially even one or two tech companies that have been around for decades depending on how large it gets before that burst. One or two companies will end up with the IP all of them are “building” and it will fizzle into the background of daily use just like the previous assistants like Alexa, Cortana, etc. have.
Potentially even one or two tech companies that have been around for decades depending on how large it gets before that burst.
Please be Microsoft, please be Microsoft, please be Microsoft.
Itll be
nvidia andopenai primarily, id have to imagineIt wont be Nvidia unless they play things incredibly badly, they’re the only ones making actual profit by selling shovels in the goldrush.
Yeah, but dont they also have the largest promisory debt? Havent they loaned the most most money that they dont actually have?
From a quick look they have ~40B USD in liabilities and make ~115B USD gross profit. Being able to pay off the entirety of their debt with 4 months of profit seems pretty healthy to me.
Cool, in a not super cool way. Nvidia is kinda scummy but the work they do is valuable. I appreciate you dropping the facts on me, but im not sure how to feel about them.
They “loaned” money to companies that immediately turned around and used that money to buy their products… So they got the money back and are only maximum out the production costs of those units if the loaner can’t pay.
But if there is a bankruptcy, they’d be at the front of the line to collect
Pretty sure they meant “[have been] loaned” but you make an interesting point
Yeah, but can they handle the collapse of going back to the company before the AI boom? They’ve increased in market cap 5000%, attracted a lot of stakeholders that never would have bothered with nVidia if not for the LLM boom. If LLM pops, then will nVidia survive with their new set of stakeholders that didn’t sign up for a ‘mere graphics company’?
They’ve reshaped their entire product strategy to be LLM focused. Who knows what the demand is for their current products without the LLM bump. Discrete GPUs were becoming increasingly niche since ‘good enough’ integrated GPUs kind of were denting their market.
They could survive a pop, but they may not have the right backers to do so anymore…
Definitely a possibility! But dealing with “only being a normal profitable company” is a very different problem to “oops, we were selling $10 for $5 and VCs have stopped giving us money to burn, and people are using self hosted models too”, which is the possible outcome for the big AI labs.
Microsoft already had a proven business model and established products and services before the AI boom. If a company goes under it would almost certainly be one focused almost entirely on AI such as Palantir.
Nah, they already converted all their business clients to recurring revenue and are, relatively, not very exposed to the LLM thing. Sure they will have overspent a bit on datacenters and nVidia gear, but they continue to basically have most of global business solidly giving them money continuously to keep Office and Azure.
In terms of longer term tech companies that could be under existential threat, I’d put Supermicro in there. They are a long term fixture in the market that was generally pretty modest and had a bit of a boost from the hyperscalers as ‘cloud’ took off, but frankly a lot of industry folks were not sure exactly how Supermicro was getting the business results they reported while doing the things they were doing. Then AI bubble pulled them up hard and was a double edged sword as the extra scrutiny seemingly revealed the answer was dubious accounting all along. The finding would have been enough to just destroy their company, except they were ‘in’ on AI enough to be buoyed above the catastrophe.
A longer stretch, but nVidia might have some struggles. The AI boom has driven their market cap about 5000%. They’ve largely redefined most of their company to be LLM centric, with other use cases left having to make the most of whatever they do for LLM. How will their stakeholders react to a huge drop from the most important company on earth to a respectable but modest vendor of stuff for graphics? How strong is the appetite for GPU when the visual results aren’t really that much more striking than they were 3 generations of hardware back?
Agreed. Probably where it should have stayed in the first place. Not that its not interesting, just that the scope of AI has widened beyond what it should have.
Depends on when the bust happens. If its in the current admin? All those tech companies are getting bailed out.
I think that might actually send the US into a debt spiral that would require leaning into printing and inflation. Net interest for FY25 is $933 Billion putting servicing debt as the third largest federal expenditure. Any bailout will either be insignificantly small or will tank the dollar.
I’m not saying you’re wrong, but it would be an incredibly stupid thing to do.
but it would be an incredibly stupid thing to do.
So we can pretty much bank on it definitely happening, got it.
It’s a good thing trump isn’t dumb enough to think US debt is easily solved by printing more money, right?
Wouldn’t that be crazy?
(I really hope this isn’t something he can actually do. It shouldn’t be possible, but neither should a lot of things he’s done.)
the real danger is if it will cause another great depression when it pops…
I am having trouble seeing how OpenAI survives without investment cash. What exactly is their moat? I know they are hoping to power the AI behind everyone else’s tech but that is more and more untenable as the others develop AI models of their own.
Just a reminder that the term “AI” stands for a category of systems that contains a lot more than just LLMs.
True, true. In this context I mean the LLM craze. The GPU era of AI.
Main reason it can flourish as assistant in the first place is that Google search engine became shit
It’s not that Google’s algorithms got bad, but the entire Internet turned to shit and they can’t compensate for it.
For anything not time-sensitive, try adding “before:2023” to your search. I’m betting the quality of your results will skyrocket.
ETA: fixed autocorrect
I’m paying for a search engine “kagi” just because Google search results have more advertising than time square. It kind of sucks since we got used to search for free but at least I can get relevant results rather than advertising when I search.
Dotcom groundhog day for the tech sector.
“convenience”? You mean CEOs being able to lay off workers with some magical technology that does nothing? Yeah, that’s surely convenient for the 0.1% of people in the world that doesn’t affect. Love that “convenience” for them.
Did it cup your balls during the last BJ or something? Fucking hell, what is it with randos on the web scaping for AI at every instance…
Are you trying to deny that AI is also convenient for regular people?
Uh, yes. AI cannot and does not have productive output as its goal, technologically speaking. Therefore, any “convenience” is imagined and projected upon an algorithm of statistically most likely text. It’s just a statistician strapped in front of the 1 Million Monkeys thought experiment.
It’s quintessentially useless, unless your ultimate goal is text resembling language en masse. But usually, Loren Ipsum is much more energy efficient.
But if it saves time on some simple tasks, how can you say it’s not convenient?
there is no task that is meaningful time saved by a kind of context-dependant lorem ipsum. The task is then not done, but simply rejected on its face.
I have no clue what you’re trying to say.
If I ask an AI to write an email and it does so both better and faster than I could, how can you say it’s inconvenient and doesn’t save time?
Friend saw ‘convenience’ and that was it. No more reading, only fists. I thought I was quite neutral. Yes, convenience. I have been known to use a local LLM based on recipes to give me ideas what I could make based on my pantry.
I have a lovely recipe for absolutely delicious chocolate-chip cookies that use pancake mix.
As an aside, you can tell how successful the rebranding of twitter as “x” has been, since even now more than 2 years after the rebranding news articles still have to add “formerly known as twitter” every time they mention it.
I still call it Twitter regularly.
To me, X is a windowing system.
Wayland, formerly known as Twitter
Weyland–Yutani
Xitter is the proper rebrand.
yeah i would be calling it twitter if not for xitter.
X reminds me of a porn site and the X itself kinda associated for me as X rated. Kinda dumb why they changed it from Twitter.
That’s why though. He’s incredibly immature.
muskrat loves his x-rated shit publicly visible to everyone
To me, X gon give it to ya
And x.com is a place people should only go late at night, when they are alone.
I call it “Exxx, the everything app” sarcastically like Liz from TrueAnon does. I never used Twitter but I just find it funny to call it that.
That dumbass throwing away the Twitter brand for a damn letter should be proof enough to anyone that he’s a moron
It blew my mind when he announced it. Brand recognition is one of the most important things companies hope for, and Twitter was in it’s own, very select brand recognition club at the top. Tweeting became part of everyday vernacular, in the same way that googling something became synonomous with searching online. It’s a company’s wet dream. No one says “gramming”, “threading”, “facebooking”, etc. Maybe Snapchat has snapping, I’m out of the loop but even I’ve used tweeting/ed in every day conversations.
That recognition is the stupidest thing to just throw away, especially to replace it with something that can’t replace it from a language perspective. Xing makes no sense in context.
It’s been two years and it’s still going, despite the name change, or, you know, the owner throwing a nazi salute on live television.
It doesn’t seem like the branding was as important as everybody seems to think, or any negative impact was offset by it staying on the news, good or bad, constantly.
But I also still say Facebook and Google instead of Meta and alphabet
Those are changes in parent company names though while the services Facebook and Google still exist. The rebrand of Twitter to X continuing to not stick for people is a much bigger failure on their part than Meta and Alphabet not entering the general zeitgeist.
Even Grok AI follows up with that reminder when it mentions X.
Some guy spending a billion dollars on pretty much nothing makes me deeply annoyed. Tax billionaires.
You must be annoyed A LOT these days. It seems that spending a lot of money on nothing is the latest trend for these people.
But spending it on their own terms. They would spend $100,000 on lawyers and lobbying to avoid paying $20,000 of new taxes.
Because it sets a precedent. If the $20k taxes go through, why not some $120k ones in the future? At the very least, this is their logic.
Good thing Burry isn’t a billionaire, he’s a fund manager.
true, lucky he is only worth hundreds of millions…
Capital gains are taxed. Profits from this are capital gains.
Burry similarly made a long-term $1 billion bet from 2005 onwards against the US mortgage market, anticipating its collapse. His fund rose a whopping 489 percent when the market did subsequently fall apart in 2008.
We may have to wait for another three years.
I looked into the article to find out how long a timeframe he is betting. Unfortunately, it does not say.
You’d think the timing should reflect the typical terms of loans and loan volumes - so that sounds plausible. When the default rate of those loans begins to creep up and become notable to investors, then people will get edgy.
I just hope it comes before our much loved and overpaid layers of incompetent management have destroyed all their manual production processes and replaced them with snake oil. If not a general economic downturn might start well before the ai bubble bursts.
How the hell did he do a long term bet against the market? Aren’t shorts short-term and they’re forced to pay after a set period of time? Even the inverse indexes will steadily make your money simply vanish.
I never got into options investing, but I believe you keep re-upping them. Every time you do so you pay a small price. So, the game is: ‘can you stay liquid long enough for the bubble to pop’.
The longest term seems to be about 2 years.
You can keep a short position for a long time, as long as you can maintain margin, which gets bigger if the stock price continues increasing, and pay margin interest - there is no set date when the short has to he closed, it’s indefinite. Sometimes the lender who loaned you the stock can ask for it back, and if you can’t locate any more shares to borrow to replace the returned shares, you might be forced to buy the shares back and close the short, but this is not common, at least during normal market conditions.
His company bought puts. They are less risky, because you don’t need to maintain margin. What you pay to buy them is all you can lose.
We may have to wait for another three years.
Which is also a clue that he isn’t short selling.
There are two ways of making money when a stock goes down. One is to sell the stock short. The other is to buy a put option.
A short sale is extremely risky. Say the shares are at $50 and you think they’re going to go down, so you sell 1000 shares you don’t own (short selling) and agree to buy them back by some date in the future. If you’re right and the stock tanks to $20, you can buy the shares and pocket $30,000. But, if the stock doesn’t sink, you might have to buy the shares for $60 each, so you lose $10 per stock, or $10,000. If there are tons of people shorting the stock, you can get a short squeeze, where everybody needs to buy shares to close out their short position, and because everybody needs to buy, the stock price rockets up, so you get people having to buy a stock that used to be $50 for $200, leading to $150,000 in losses for a 1000 share short where the maximum possible gain was only $50,000.
An option is much safer. There you’re buying the option to sell the shares at a certain price at some time in the future. Say you think a stock is going to crash. It’s currently trading at $50/share. You can buy 1000 put options at a strike price of $40 with a date 1 month in the future. It will cost you something to buy those options, say $1 per share, so $1000. If the stock goes up or stays at $50, your bet didn’t work out. You don’t have to sell the shares, you just tear up the options contract. You’re out whatever you paid for the option, say $1000 here. But, say the stock tanks and it’s now at $20/share. Now your bet did pay off. You can buy 1000 shares at $20 each for $20,000, then immediately exercise your option and sell them for $40,000, netting you $20,000. With put options the upside is significantly smaller, but the potential downside is tiny. It’s just the cost of the options.
Someone predicting a crash within 3 years isn’t going to short sell the shares. Between now and then the shares could continue to rise for a while, and they’d be on the hook for a huge payout in that case. If they buy options the down side is much smaller. They may have to re-buy new options a bunch of times. But in the worst case they just have to let the options expire unused and eat whatever cost they paid for them.
For the coming AI crash, I don’t think it will be very soon. I think there will be a crash. But, I think the government will try to keep the bubble from bursting. Too much of the US economy is now invested in AI. So, even under Biden, or Harris, or Obama they’d try to prevent a catastrophic crash by using taxpayer money to prevent the most damaging bubble burst. With Trump, there’s going to be even more government interference in the market. His backers are crypto bros. They’re the ones making him billions on his meme coins. They bankrolled JD Vance’s political career. If they demand that he rescues their failing companies, he’ll do it. And, since the GOP does whatever Trump wants, they’ll just fork over literal trillions in taxpayer dollars to keep things from crashing. But, eventually there will have to be a crash, because there’s just not a sustainable business model in any of this, at least not at anything like the current scale.
A short is not only a bet on a direction but also a timing issue. You need to know roughly how long (time) to keep the option.
It is interesting that stocks began going down though. Whether it continues, we should see.
Its not a question of “if” but “when.”
and whether he has enough liquidity to maintain his margin during absolutely insane market distortions by hedge funds, big banks, and the government.
And when it pops it will be a big bang in the entire global economy from what i heared and read.
I mean, the housing bubble burst and the government pulled 7 trillion out of its arse and handed it back to bankers, doubling the cost of current living from the knock-on inflation. Life went on, and not a single banker (except maybe some lackey in Iceland) was punished. The Rich got exceedingly wealthy after the crisis.
This time: the government will pull 50 trillion from its arse and hand it back to investors. Life will go on, no one will be punished, the cost of living will be a few times higher than what it is now, and the rich will get richer.
My interpretation: the big investors fully expect the bubble to burst and hope to win from the fallout/bailout. It’s win-win for them.
I was wondering about the source for this figure. For the curious, it comes from a private report from an independent consulting firm in the UK called MacroStrategy Partnership. I found this article talking about it, dated 2025-10-3.
True Edit: which government are you talking about with “the government”?
Any. If it happened under Obama, it will most certainly happen under Trump
Thats quite the US centered perspective
I’m from the UK/Germany. The dollar is a worldwide currency with far reaching impact
Germany had the same financial crisis around that time with a 70 Mrd € bailout as I’m sure you remember
Nvidia down ~8% this week, Palantir down ~10%
Maybe the needle really is shifting.
Maybe, but he’s also been super wrong a bunch of times on his skitzo twitter account so grains of salt and all that. Not saying the guy isn’t smart, clearly called one of the biggest systemic crisis of our times, but he struck gold once and struck out a bunch more often.
Because it’s more likely that he got lucky once and his short position was strong enough that he could keep paying the premiums than it is that he is some super genius who knew something noone else knew
I just phoned a business today that ended up with an “AI receptionist” when they didn’t answer the phone.
They wanted to take my name down, asked who I was leaving a message for, and then recorded the message…
My god what a painful process that was. It was absolutely useless. Firstly it got my name wrong, and then the name of the person I was leaving the message for wrong. No “Janet” my name is not Don it’s John, and no I’m not leaving a message for Kim Its for Kam. And then it needs to repeat your entire message back to you in order to make sure it didn’t fuck it up which amazingly the message was probably 95% okay but it was a giant waste of my time when a FUCKIN VOICEMAIL WOULD HAVE SUFFICED
Had an issue with Comcast today. They forced me to use their Xfinity app, but what I needed to do wasn’t an apparent option within the app. The only option I saw was a support chatbot. The chatbot listed a link to the option I was looking for. The link opened a webview within the Xfinity app, in which there was a link to download the Xfinity app.
Unnecessary Apps and chat bots. Two of my least favorite things referring me back and forth, forever, in an endless loop.
comcast is probably the worst cs, plus they always trying to pedal you shit.
Peddle but yes, they’re monsters
referring me back and forth, forever, in an endless loop
Just like they intended.
an online store, for games used a fully AI agent as a CS, it was giving them the run around, till i kept asking about escalting it, finally it was able to either contact them shortly or through email.
I’m reading along and I’m im like, “yep that’s dumb and that’s dumb, and that’s dumb. Yep that’s dumb and that’s dumb too.”
Then I read the last 7 words and, “Oof… yeah that is REALLY FUCKING DUMB”
Burry also lost money since 2008 making shorts like Tesla. The Big Shart.
Looks like very mixed returns. Which is what you’d expect from a strategy of betting on areas that are significantly overvalued.
The market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent
See Bill Ackerman and Herbalife.
Federal regulators should have shut that shit down ages ago, but the grifter party loves MLMs (look at how the DeVos family made their money…)
Oh god, I just saw another storefront in my local area that popped up. My coworker dragged me in there, and aside from the incredibly overpriced products, the countertops were loaded with pamphlets on doing the herbal life thing.
Ackerman and Valeant. He promised congress he was going to stop price gouging on drugs.
Nah.
Can investors remain irrational long enough for OpenAI to remain solvent?
They have been irrational longer than you’ve been an investor. They have become exceedingly efficient at it.
I mean, he is not wrong per se, he just had the wong timing.
…what if he had the Jiang time?
I’ve got a problem with articles like this: “The guy who got it right once is betting a second time he’s going to get it right”. and then the article continues: “Even though he’s got it wrong a bunch of times since, he got it right that one time… So this has gotta be his second time!!”
The odds of being right x times in a row must be really low, correct?
Good
since his bet on the housing market he effectively lost money. all the public things he made can also be safety investments in case his secret hedgefund stuff he doesn’t have to disclose fails.
- this is what an ex-financebro told me yesterday
i LOVE LOVE LOVE the thought of the AI Bubble popping… but i don’t think this MF is the guy to trust
Yeah, my heart sank a little when I saw burry shorted, it was about the same time I opened a small short position. I am so screwed…
You sure about that?
My money is on the American bubble popping. China would do just fine. As to Europe’s? Probably not developed enough to seriously impact them, but probably able to fill America’s void once the bubble action has died down. America is pretty fucked in general, so it isn’t so much AI in particular, but rather a ghost economy.
Something based on imaginary stocks, grift, de-industrialization, ghost jobs and falsified labor statistics, likely mixed with a debased dollar, just doesn’t bode well.
Something based on imaginary stocks, grift, de-industrialization, ghost jobs and falsified labor statistics, likely mixed with a debased dollar, just doesn’t bode well.
This is literally describes China, what are you even talking about?
It is a matter of degree. While China has issues, America’s is much worse across the board.
You’re an actual moron if you truly believe that.
Again, what are you even talking about? Literally everything you listed China is doing much worse in, not to mention other major issues like a demographic crises on top of everything else.
Most of the European digital infrastructure is caught in the web of Microsoft, and will be pulled down with it when Microsoft inevitably lose their bets on AI.
Europe should focus mlre on using mivrosoft, google and amazon (european) alternatives
What a shitty take. Imagine betting on something with a poor human rights record and countless privacy violation. America may have it’s faults, but it will get ironed out like it always does. I’m hoping for everybody’s sake that China doesn’t become the new global superpower. America has the soft power thing down to the t at least.
As for the other claims you made, source?
In my humble opinion Bush kind of fucked America up, but that is fixable.
Dude. I live in the US, and would like it to be a super-awesome place that genuinely leads the world in morality and prosperity.
Unfortunately, my nation has been going down the toilet. If you haven’t noticed, things like ICE’s raid on Hyundai, the undeclared war and crimes upon Venuzela, over 1,800 people disappeared from Alligator Alcatraz, Mike Johnson refusing to open congress, the SNAP denial, and other bouts of malicious stupidity are very bad signs for the future.
In any case, I don’t like China, but it is likely to be a superpower for awhile until India or someone else takes the crown. The crown was America’s to lose, and I am pretty sure we are losing it.
even if chinas AI doesnt work out, they probably do a slow deliberate fall, orchestrated by the ccp. much like they did with the evergrande ponzi scheme.
This is in a category I’d like to call hopebait. People so badly wish things they feel are bad simply stopped themselves, that they’ll upvote anything that appears to confirm this.
In this instance, there is nothing of substance in this article to suggest the end of anything is anywhere near in sight.
One guy, who makes bets constantly, made another bet.
Seriously the stock market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
People are idiots.
Is there a consensus there’s an AI bubble? Sure?
Can anyone predict what will happen? LOfuckingL
Well yeah. Sam Altman just came out and basically said he needs a few trillion dollars and government backed loans. This shit is going to be BAD.
What does his height have to do with anything? Are we body shaming?
deleted by creator
Huh. I understood that as “big player in shorting world”
You understood that part correctly, but misunderstood the joke
It’s a movie title ‘the big short’ which tells the story about the housing market bubble crash
